Fantasy Football 2018 Don't Draft A Quarterback Early

23 Aug 2018 - 10:38pm | DFS_Tom | Updated: 23 Aug 2018 - 10:38pm | Likes: 13

Don’t Draft A Quarterback Early

We are back with another fantasy football article, as we yet another week closer to the start of the regular season. I have covered several different topics, everything from defenses, injuries, positional breakdowns, and more. Today, we are going to be looking at more of a general theory which is, not drafting quarterbacks until the later rounds. There is plenty to be said about reaching for a top quarterback, but the value and production you can get out of a lower tier, who won’t cost you the draft stock. I’ll present a few options you can find lower in drafts, but still have plenty of potential this season.

-          Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders

Carr comes in with an ADP sitting at 134 right now, making him the 20th quarterback off the board in drafts. He is coming off a very disappointing year, especially since he got a very large contract extension in the previous offseason. He finished with his lowest numbers since his rookie season of 2014, which is partly why he is being drafted so low. Not only were the overall numbers down, but the yards per attempt came down and the interceptions went up. Carr also dealt with some injury issues, making it a season to forget. With all that said, the Raiders and head coach Jon Gruden have made it clear this offseason that they are going to be focused on the passing game. Gruden has been quoted as saying that Amari Cooper will be the focus of the offense this year, who will be followed by Jordy Nelson, a solid offseason signing. This is the ideal spot for a bounce-back season, low ADP and an offense who are ready to move the ball downfield.

-          Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

 Listen, it’s only a matter of time until Baker is starting at quarterback for the Browns this season. Well, at least that is the conversation among NFL analysts this preseason. He has an ADP of 207, which is essentially free at the end of your drafts. If you can stash him as a third quarterback that will likely be the best call, but taking up an extra roster spot for a player who isn’t playing can be a tough call. Its one thing to have an extra wide receiver on your roster, but three QBs can be tough to stomach for some. Regardless of that, Baker is eyeing that starting job and if there is any questions surrounding Tyrod Taylor, he will be in line for the starting job. Not saying this is a safe play by any means, but later in the season, we might have a different view of things.

-          Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals

Dalton is another quarterback who is coming off a disappointing year, but he is someone who has shown much better in the past. He finished last season with 3,320 yards, 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The season prior he had 4,206 yards, 18 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. Big, big change from season to season and while he might not get all the way up to 4,200 yards, finding the middle ground between the two seasons is realistic for him. We also saw a very down year from AJ Green last season and you have to think these two players are extremely highly correlated with their production. If you want to buy into Green bouncing back, as many around the industry are, you have to be on board with Dalton bouncing back in the same regard. Love his ADP all the way down at 225, putting him in the 18th round of a 12-team draft. Let me put it like this, Jameis Winston, who is suspended for the first four games of the season, is being drafted before Dalton. That should tell you enough about how free he is at the end of drafts.

-          Mitch Trubisky, Chicago Bears

Trubisky is coming off a very unproductive rookie season, where he ended with only 2,193 passing yards, which was 28th most in the league. On top of that, he had only seven touchdowns with seven interceptions. Really, really bad numbers from a highly drafted player, BUT, all that is set to change. The Bears have a new coach staff, with Matt Nagy at head coach, who was the OC for the Chiefs last season, along with having Mark Helfrich at OC, who was the head coach of the University of Oregon. They have clearly made a directional change and are pushing forward the offense. This is great for Bears fans, but also the fantasy production their players can offer. Trubisky has and ADP sitting at 178 right now and is yet another quarterback who is easy to obtain later in drafts. Listen, it’d almost be impossible for him to have fewer touchdowns this season compared to last year. If he has 18+ touchdowns this season, he will blow his ADP value out of the water. He also makes a great backup option, who you can start on a fill-in basis. 

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