DFS Breakdown-Wildcard Weekend

Posted: 7 January 2017 - 10:57am | Roto Coach | Updated: 13 Jan 2017 - 12:43pm
DFS Breakdown-Wildcard Weekend

Welcome to Wild Card weekend and the DFS breakdown for the Saturday-Sunday slate of games. Let’s start off by acknowledging that it isn’t pretty this week-not even a little. Three of the eight quarterbacks taking the field this week are injury replacements that didn’t even figure to see any post-season action until the last few weeks, and two of them are facing off against each other in the opening game on Saturday. For those of us rolling out DFS lineups this week, at least we can be appreciative of the fact that there are more options than a regular season midweek Monday-Thursday slate...not many, but more.

Let’s dig into these games and see what kind of DFS rosters we can build for Wild Card weekend.

 

Oakland @ Houston

Houston: -3.5 O/U: 37

Quarterback: Sometimes the football gods just aren’t on your side, and that’s certainly been the case for the Oakland Raiders over the past few weeks. In their last two games the Raiders have lost emerging franchise quarterback Derek Carr to a broken leg, and then backup Matt McGloin to a shoulder injury. Which means rookie Connor Cook is in line to be the starter for Oakland this week. And if McGloin isn’t healthy enough to back up Cook on Saturday then the Raiders are an injury away from thrusting Garrett Gilbert into his first NFL action. To date, his only NFL “accomplishment” has been managing to stick on the Patriots practice squad from mid-December of 2014 right through Malcolm Butler’s goal-line interception of Russell Wilson in the Super Bowl. A stint that earned him a Super Bowl ring, which is ironic because his father went to five straight Super Bowls as a backup quarterback and was on the losing end of all of them. If you want more weird Garrett Gilbert trivia you can find it here. At any rate, it’s Connor Cook to the rescue for Oakland, and his last “start” was a crushing 38-0 defeat at the hands of Alabama in last year’s Cotton Bowl/BCS playoff. That said, Cook isn’t a lost cause. He’s a big strong kid that can make all the NFL throws, and was highly touted as an NFL prospect heading into his senior year at Michigan State. The problem has always been his consistency, particularly on short to intermediate routes. And much like his Cotton Bowl debacle, he never really played at an elite level in big spots at the collegiate level. That failure to develop cost him multiple rounds in the draft this year and it makes him really hard to trust making his first start in an NFL playoff game, especially facing one of the best coverage units in the league on the road. He does have top shelf offensive weapons around him, but in DFS Cook is nothing more than a longshot tournament flyer that helps you jam in a bevy of high priced players at the other skill positions. On the other side of the ball we’ll get another backup quarterback, as Tom Savage will miss this game due to a concussion. But before I move on to Brock Osweiler, think for a second about the fact that injuries to Tom Savage and Matt McGloin actually downgraded the quarterback position across the board for this game. It has a 37 point projected Vegas total for a reason folks. If you listen to the podcast you know I don’t think much of Brock Osweiler as an NFL quarterback. Even before the Texans benched their overpaid offseason acquisition, they were making a serious effort to hide him week in and week out, and I expect more of the same here. Even with Oakland’s secondary showing some vulnerability at times this season, it’s hard to imagine Bill O’Brien asking Osweiler to throw them to a victory here while facing a rookie signal caller in his first NFL start on the other side.   

Running Back: So with Osweiler suspect at best, it’s Lamar “Miller-time” (see what I did there?) Lamar Miller has rested the past couple weeks, which just might make him the most viable fantasy option in this game. The Raiders have proven to be a middle of the road rush defense on the season, and wrapped up the year allowing 100 or more rushing yards in five of their final seven games. With a likely gamescript that has Osweiler handing off plenty and the Texans trying to force a rookie quarterback to beat them, Miller should be in for a solid workload and it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t see at least 20-25 touches if he doesn’t re-aggravate his ankle injury. He’s also likely to go a bit overlooked at a mid-tier price with most players scrambling to fit in Le’Veon Bell at one of the running back slots. With Miller back, Alfred Blue is impossible to count on for much of anything here. On the Raiders side we should see a healthy dose of Latavius Murray with the Raiders seeking to play it safe with Cook. The Raiders have been at their best all season when Murray has seen a healthy workload. And while the carries have been scaled back the past few weeks, it only makes sense that the Raiders will look to involve him early and often against a Texans defense that is far more vulnerable to the running game to start with. If you believe Cook and the Raiders receivers can keep the Houston defense from loading up the box to stop Murray, then he has to be a consideration at a reduced salary. Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington should continue to figure into the Oakland backfield, but don’t overrate where they stand. It’s difficult to know since Richard has been dealing with an injury, but it does look like Washington has moved ahead of him in on the depth chart. Even with that in mind, and Washington’s increased workload over the past couple weeks, it’s important to remember that the bulk of that work came after Carr was lost to injury. On some level you’d have to imagine the Raiders were looking to protect Murray a bit with a playoff berth already assured. I’m not sure I’m willing to gamble on either of the rookie running backs here for the Raiders, as I think Jack Del Rio is going to want to ride or die with the guys that got him here (or at least what’s left of them).  

Wide Receiver: WIth four games on the slate you simply have to consider everyone. The problem here is that the corner play on both sides of the ball is going to give the receivers and these two quarterbacks fits. For the Texans it was only in the final week of the season that Osweiler seemed to buy into DeAndre Hopkins as a number one receiver, finally feeding him the way we had all anticipated he would for the last four months. Maybe something clicked, but maybe not. In spots where the price hasn’t yet rebounded I think you can go here and hope these two stay on the same page this week. But in places where it’s come back up, I have a hard time trusting him in a less than ideal matchup. The only other Texans receiver you can take a look at is Will Fuller, and much as he has been for the entire season, he’s going to be a straight up boom or bust play. You need him to break a big one, which involves Brock Osweiler hitting him in a spot where he can make a play, as well as Fuller hanging onto the football. Both seem like much longer shots than they did at the start of the season, but tournament plays are tournament plays for a reason. On the Raiders side you’re looking at Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, both of whom you need to pay for, remembering that they’re going to be catching Connor Cook passes in this one. The Texans are a top ranked pass defense on the season so testing this secondary doesn’t make a lot of sense. If you’re rolling out either of these guys you’re banking on the Raiders getting down big early and needing to throw their way back into the game. Even in that gamescript it’s difficult to see either of the receivers going off, but they could certainly reach value against soft coverage if the Texans get up a couple of touchdowns late. All of the receivers in this game are GPP only for me with the chaotic quarterback situations and strong secondaries.

Tight End: Perhaps the only upside to having Brock Osweiler back under center is that it does improve the fantasy prospects of C.J. Fiedorowicz. He’s been Osweiler’s most reliable target since he took over the starting tight end role early in the season, which is about as clear a commentary as you need on Brock’s play this season. Nonetheless, he’s a huge target and has been a steady safety valve for the struggling quarterback all year. In a game with a low total where the Texans should play it safe and try to control the football, Fiedorowicz might not be a bad tournament swerve off of guys like Jimmy Graham and Eric Ebron. The Raiders do rank in the bottom third of the league in fantasy points allowed to the position so he’s a little sneaky in a game that many players are going to look to avoid. Were it Derek Carr under center you could make the case for Clive Walford as a punt play, but there’s just not enough of a sample size with Connor Cook to feel remotely good about him, even as a dart throw. Add in the fact that the Texans allowed the third fewest fantasy points to the tight end position this season and he’s an easy fade for me.

Defense: The Texans are likely to be one of the more popular defensive options with their matchup against Cook at home, and they’re an easy plug and play in cash games. I do expect them to be super-chalky in tournaments as well so there’s at least a game theory argument for fading them in GPPs. As bad as Osweiler has been this season, the Raiders aren’t the worst defensive option this week. But as road dogs with their third string quarterback in his first NFL start, that’s a tough place to go.   

Detroit @ Seattle

Seattle: -8 O/U: 43.5

Quarterback: On the bright side we’ve got two legit NFL quarterbacks to take a look at in the late game on Saturday, but the downside is a large spread and Vegas projected Detroit team total that just barely beats the Raiders’. There are also some weather projections calling for light rain or sleet, and maybe even some snow as the game progresses. That’s never a good thing for a road team, and it’s particularly bad for one that plays its home games indoors. Add in the fact that the Lions enter the playoffs on a three game losing streak and are only here because the Washington Redskins choked last week, and it’s tough to like many pieces from the Detroit side of this game. Still, Matthew Stafford is firmly in play in GPPs after looking a bit healthier against Green Bay last week. The Lions are also down to the bottom of the barrel and running back and aren’t going to have a ton of success running the ball against the Seahawks defensive front anyway. We never like to target Seattle in the passing game, especially at home. But the absence of Earl Thomas in the Seahawks secondary has been noticeable, and this game projects as one where the Lions will be playing from behind. That has to put a reasonably priced Stafford on your radar in tournaments. We know he’s going to throw 40+ times here and if he manages a couple scores he could be among the week’s top performers at a discounted price tag. On the Seattle side it’s playoff time for Russell Wilson, and that’s a real thing. Wilson has accounted for at least two touchdowns in five of his last six postseason games dating back to the Seahawks Super Bowl dismantling of the Denver Broncos three seasons ago. He’s also been absolutely clutch at home, having never lost a postseason game at CenturyLink field. Even with his strong playoff track record Wilson is not really an option in cash games this week, as his season has been filled with nagging injuries and inconsistent play so the level of safety we’re after just isn’t there. Although he’s not a cash option, he makes a fantastic tournament play on a slate where many players will gravitate toward big name guys like Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger. Wilson’s performance this season has turned many off, but that presents a real opportunity against the NFL’s 32nd ranked pass defense. The only concern here is that the game could get out of hand early and Seattle might opt to take the air out of the ball, especially in less than ideal conditions.

Running Back: The Lions are down to Zach Zenner as the back they trust. PPR monster Theo Riddick hit IR last week and is done for the season. That leaves rookie Dwayne Washington, who has battled injuries and inconsistency all season, as the backup. The Lions have also brought back Joique Bell, but he’s nothing more than insurance at this point. By no means should we be counting on a big game from Zenner, but he does have the type of opportunity we look for in a running back. Admittedly, the matchup against one of the league’s best run defenses is terrible here, which is going to keep a lot of players from rostering him. But Zenner saw 24 touches last week and is likely going to play ninety percent or more of the running back snaps (40 touches over the past two weeks). In places where he’s still cheap, he can be a solid second back or a flex option that helps you fit in some of the studs. It’s also worth keeping in mind that he’s been targeted 13 times in the passing game over the past three weeks so they aren’t afraid to throw him the football. If he cracks 90 total yards there’s a good chance he’s paid off his salary on full point PPR sites, and if he finds the end zone we’re in business. He’s not safe, but he is intriguing. Speaking of “not safe” we’ve got Thomas Rawls on the other side of the ball, and he’s flat out stunk for the final month or so of the season. So much so that even a matchup with the historically bad San Francisco 49ers run defense couldn’t help him get back on track last week. It’s no secret that the real problem here is Seattle’s offensive line, but that doesn’t change the fact that Rawls has struggled and could cede some carries to backup Alex Collins if he can’t get on track. Fortunately, he gets a Detroit defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league against the run. And after a midseason string of five games where they held opponents under 100 rushing yards per game, the Lions have allowed more than 100 yards rushing in each of their last three games and more than 150 yards on the ground in each of their final two.

Wide Receiver: Marvin Jones was a guy I liked last week against a weaker Green Bay secondary. Even with the absence of Thomas, this is still a Seattle coverage unit that can get the job done, and they will make a concerted effort to take him away as the lone downfield threat in this offense. Hands down the top option for Detroit though, is Golden Tate. There’s the obvious “revenge game” narrative here, but in the absence of Riddick the Lions are also force-feeding Tate in the short passing game, and have been for most of the season. He has 40 targets over the season’s final four games, and in a win or go home situation he should meet and likely exceed that volume on Saturday. He’s not a strong bet to explode, but he could be in line for a healthy catch total and decent yardage as the Lions fight to stay in this game. Anquan Boldin represents a bit of a dart throw here, but it’s not without some merit. The loss of Earl Thomas has made the Seattle defense more susceptible in the middle of the field. That’s where Boldin does the bulk of his work, and he’s always an option in the red zone. For Seattle, the injury to Tyler Lockett is only going to elevate the workload for Doug Baldwin, and he’s the top target in the passing game for Wilson. Detroit has also been abysmal against slot receivers this season, as their best cover corner, Darius Slay, rarely ventures inside. This is a prime spot for Baldwin in a great matchup. The only threat to his production is a sizable lead that has Seattle taking its foot off the gas, but even then you’d have to imagine that he was a big part of building it. The other option in tournaments here is Jermaine Kearse, who represents some potential value as a boom bust play. He always seems to play a key role in Seattle’s postseason games, recording touchdown catches in five of Seattle’s last eight postseason contests and 6 TDs in all. In 69 career regular season games, Kearse has caught just 11 touchdowns.

Tight End: This game is going to be where a lot of players look to fill out their tight end position. And it starts with Jimmy Graham. Graham should see an expanded role with the injury to Lockett, and the matchup here is ideal. The Lions are one of five teams to allow double digit touchdowns to the tight end position, and they rank in the bottom five at defending the position on the season. Graham is a near lock in cash games, and a solid tournament option. On the other side Eric Ebron is in a good spot as well. The same rationale that puts Boldin in play also applies to Ebron. The Seahawks are vulnerable in the middle of the field, and Ebron is the type of player who can capitalize given his athleticism. He’s also seen 25 targets over the past three weeks and is clearly picking up some of the short passing game work that had been going to Theo Riddick. Ebron is in play in both cash and tournaments, and I actually expect him to be the second most popular tight end behind Graham this week.

Defense: The Seahawks figure to be one of the defensive pivots from the Texans and it makes a lot of sense. They haven’t lost a playoff game at home since Wilson became the starting quarterback, and this is one of the toughest venues to play in in the league. Detroit also stumbles into the playoffs, and despite playing better last week against Green Bay, is still riding a three game losing streak. A trip to Seattle in January is hardly the cure for that. Seattle makes for a solid play in all formats. On the other side, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where I would consider the Lions defense. Bad matchup, on the road, and backing into the playoffs-no thanks.

 

 

Miami @ Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh: -10 O/U: 45.5

Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill was a surprise practice participant on Friday so stay tuned to the news leading up to game time. As it is, Matt Moore actually isn’t a bad punt play in tournaments. He’s priced way down in Osweiler/Cook territory on a lot of sites and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all three games since taking over as the starter. Pittsburgh plays a bend but don’t break style of pass defense, and Moore has shown that he can move the chains in the short to intermediate passing game. The Dolphins also come into this game as huge underdogs which means Moore could spend a significant amount of time quarterbacking this team in comeback mode. Remember, garbage time points count just the same in fantasy. If it’s Tannehill under center then I’m not interested. We know he’s not going to be at a hundred percent if he plays, and the Steelers are notorious for dialing up all sorts of blitzes in this type of situation. I’m also not discounting the fact that Tannehill could start, but not wind up finishing this game. On a small slate like this, that would be a killer. On the other side Ben Roethlisberger is likely to be the most popular option of the slate at quarterback. His home-road splits are well documented and top Miami cover corner Byron Maxwell will miss this game. He shut down Antonio Brown when these two teams met earlier this season in Miami and the Dolphins knocked Big Ben out of the game briefly in what ultimately wound up being a meniscus tear that forced him to miss time midseason. After sitting in Week 17 Roethlisberger should be ready to go and in a prime spot here against the Dolphins, who just got shredded by Tom Brady and company in the season finale. The Steelers have the highest projected Vegas point total of the weekend and Big Ben has the safest floor of any quarterback, and arguably the highest ceiling.

Running Back: There are only two backs of note in this game, Jay Ajayi and Le’Veon Bell. Let’s start with Ajayi, who posted the first of his three 200 yard rushing games this season against the Steelers when they met in Miami. In a game that projects to have temps in the teens and the typical Pittsburgh winds coming off the river, he’s going to be a big part of what the Dolphins do early on. The problem with Ajayi has been consistency. The big games have been big to be sure, but he’s had his bad days as well, failing to average over 3 yards per carry in half of Miami’s final six games. For me he’s just too pricey for what he’s likely to give you against a solid Steelers run defense. After getting torched on the ground by both LeGarrette Blount and Ezekiel Elliott in a four week span that included their bye, the Steelers reeled of five straight games where they held opponents to 91 yards or less on the ground before giving up 122 to the Ravens in Week 16. Then they trotted out the JV team to face Cleveland last week. Ajayi is just not a player I’m considering at his price point this week. Le’Veon Bell on the other hands is a cash game lock this week. No one in the NFL accounts for as much of their team’s offensive workload, and that isn’t going to change here in the playoffs. Against this Miami team 150 total yards or more is pretty realistic and he’s a strong bet to find the end zone at least once. The only problem is his salary, which now sits at over $10k on both DraftKings and FanDuel. With 25-30 points almost assured he’s hard to fade in cash, but there’s a strong case to be made for going a different direction with some GPP lineups, as any failure to reach value could immediately vault your lineup ahead of half the field or more. To me it’s worth building both Bell and non-Bell lineups for GPPs.

Wide Receiver: On the Miami side we’ve seen the delta in targets among Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, and DeVante Parker reduced considerably, as all have received between 17-22 targets since Moore took over. If Tannehill starts then Landry gets a slight bump above the other two, but without him I’m inclined to roll with either Stills or Parker as a nice value. Let’s face it, Vegas expect the Dolphins to be playing from behind in this one, and that’s tough to argue with given this matchup. I think I prefer Parker to Stills, who is more of a one trick pony and has the more suspect hands, but you can make a case for either as a flyer. On the Steelers side I want all the Antonio Brown I can fit. Maxwell gave him trouble in Miami, but without him the Dolphins don’t have anyone that can cover Brown. Since a sloppy rain-soaked game against the Bengals in Week 2, Brown has scored at least one touchdown and/or eclipsed 100 yards in every home game this season, even with Landry Jones under center. He should be huge here against a beaten down Dolphins secondary. Outside of Brown you can make a case for Sammie Coates or Eli Rogers, but neither one has the ceiling you want in tournaments and both have very low floors that worry me. I’m not sure I’ll wind up on either when all is said and done.

Tight End: There’s nothing to see here for the Dolphins since Jordan Cameron went down early in the season, and the Steelers are still without Ladarius Green. With that in mind, Jesse James isn’t a bad punt option against a Miami defense that gave up the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends this season.

Defense: The Steelers are going to be chalky with Matt Moore at quarterback, but they become even more interesting if Tannehill is in the mix. Regardless, the Steelers are favored by double digits so you can play this defense in any format. As for the Dolphins...nope!

 

New York Giants @ Green Bay

Green Bay: -4.5 O/U: 44.5

 

Quarterback: This is actually my favorite game to target of the weekend, as few teams have proven to be more dangerous in the NFL playoffs over the last decade than New York Giants squads being led by Eli Manning on the road. The first time Eli and this team went to Green Bay in the postseason they won a frigid game in overtime and marched to a Super Bowl victory over an undefeated Patriots team. Of course, it wasn’t the same team. But that squad did also lose to the Packers in the regular season as well, before upsetting Green Bay at Lambeau for the NFC Championship. They went back again in 2011 for a second round matchup and Eli dropped a 330 yard, 3 touchdown passing performance on the Packers in a big time upset. Few quarterbacks seem to carry momentum the way Manning does, and he certainly looked good in last week’s tune up game against the Redskins, in a game that had no bearing on the Giants playoff fortunes whatsoever. The weakness of this Packers defense is its secondary, and the Giants certainly have the playmakers to exploit it. I don’t know that the Giants come away with a  win here, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least, and nor would a Sunday night shootout. As well as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense has been playing of late, this is a Giants team that has looked elite on the defensive side of the ball for much of the season. With Rodgers and company clicking on all cylinders, this Giants secondary is going to be in for a real test. And it’s unlikely the Packers are going to find success running the ball against this Giants front so the offense is going to be all about Mr. Discount Double-check this week.

Running Back: This is easily the most convoluted backfield scenario of the weekend, as the Giants have made a point of talking up rookie Paul Perkins as the back who will see the most playing time. In fairness, they’ve been doing that for weeks, and somehow it always winds up a relative split between Perkins and veteran Rashad Jennings. Perkins is clearly the more dynamic back, but this is the playoffs and Jennings is the veteran. I don’t expect much too change here, but I do like Perkins a touch more and I’m not sure I’d play either one in cash. For Green Bay it’s difficult to know if the the Aaron Ripkowski experiment was about making sure Ty Montgomery was healthy for the playoffs or if it’s really a thing. Green Bay was locked into a playoff spot once the Redskins lost last Sunday afternoon so it’s certainly possible that Mike McCarthy pivoted to an alternate game plan, although everyone else seemed to play their regular complement of snaps. Regardless, the Giants are a top five run defense on the season and having been getting stronger. Montgomery seems far too expensive given the lack of visibility into how he’ll be deployed, while Ripkoswki and backup Christian Michael are too hard to trust. This is simply a stay away situation.

Wide Receiver: Much like Antonio Brown, I’ll take all the Odell Beckham I can get. In fact, if you’re fading Le’Veon Bell in a GPP, there are worse ways to go than pairing up these two stud receivers. Beckham gets a matchup with the NFL’s 22nd ranked pass defense, and one that lacks a true shutdown corner. That’s not going to go well for Green Bay. Beckham is in play in all formats, and I might even like him a touch better than Brown because of the likelihood this game stays close. Sterling Shepard also make a strong play at his price, as the Packers have struggled against slot receivers all season long. There’s always the chance that Green Bay sells out to stop Beckham and makes the rookie beat them. He can, by the way. Victor Cruz also offers a little punt appeal as a flyer. For Green Bay I’m a little less enthusiastic about Jordy Nelson than most. He’s not that much of discount from Beckham and Brown and the floor just feels a lot lower. The Giants gave him fits when these teams met earlier this season, and that could certainly be the case again here. Randall Cobb also returns from a multi-week absence so that may cut into Nelson’s target share as well. I think plenty of players will lock in Jordy and Rodgers and build from there, but I’m not sure that has the ceiling to get it done in tournaments this week or the safety to be the basis for a cash game lineup either. If you’re looking for a Green Bay receiver to pair with Rodgers, I much prefer Davante Adams at a decent discount.

Tight End: Both tight ends in this game make for very nice values at their current prices. Jared Cook gets a Giants linebacking corps that has struggled against the position. While they’ve been stout in the red zone, this Giants squad is one of only seven teams to give up a thousand yards receiving to the tight end position on the season. Cook has the athleticism to take advantage of that mismatch and may be my favorite point per dollar pass catcher for Green Bay (that’s a scary sentence). Will Tye comes into this game with 13 catches on 17 targets over his last three games. He doesn’t have the upside of Cook, but he does see work in the short passing game, and the Giants do look for him at times in the red zone. He’s super cheap and if this game shoots out he could be a real steal.

Defense: This game projects to be the most closely contested and arguably has the most offensive talent on the field overall. Both of these quarterbacks are capable of putting up monster games and both have been here before. This Giants defense is considerably better than Green Bay’s, but there are so many better options on this slate.

Good luck this week!     

 

 

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