DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 10

9 Nov 2018 - 5:01pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 9 Nov 2018 - 5:06pm | Likes: 24 Like 
DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 10

Welcome to the DFS 6-Pack, where every week I provide 6 picks, with two high dollar, two mid-level, and two low-dollar players to consider for your DFS tournament lineups. I alternate weekly between DraftKings and FanDuel for picks and pricing in order to make sure I’m covering GPP plays for folks playing on both of those sites. Here in Week 10 we’re going to use DraftKings pricing, as we look to unearth some interesting GPP options. The goal is to find players that can return enough value to be tournament viable, while also thinking through where some of the pivots to the more chalky plays will be that week so we get a little differentiation in our lineups. Now that you know the deal, let’s get after it!

High Dollar

Aaron Rodgers-QB-Green Bay Packers-$6400: Rodgers 259 passing yards last week was the season low, as he’s averaging nearly 320 yards per game, albeit on a career low completion percentage (61%). As you’ll see below, I like stacking him up with Jimmy Graham, but I also don’t think you can go wrong with Davante Adams or Marquez Valdes-Scantling either, as this is a Dolphins defense that will give up big plays. The numbers don’t tell the whole truth for the Dolphins though, as the defense has been bad enough against the run that most teams are able to find success with a balanced attack. They are also arguably the worst 5-4 team in the league, and facing a 3-4-1 Packers squad that’s now fighting for its playoff life. I expect the ball to be in Aaron Rodgers hands quite a bit this week, and with running back Aaron Jones slated to be a popular mid-tier option, loading up on Rodgers and one or two of the Packers receivers makes for a nice leverage play. Mike McCarthy may be an idiot, but he’s not dumb enough to make Jones the focal point of the offense with Green Bay’s season in the balance. Other potential pivots: Jared Goff-QB-Los Angeles Rams-$6100

Josh Gordon-WR-New England Patriots-$6000: For the first time since coming to New England, Gordon is nowhere to be found on the injury report. Furthermore, he’s seen an increase in his snaps, and has now played 80% or more in each of the past four games. And his target share in the offense is growing as well. Over the stretch he’s been targeted 9, 7, 6, and 10 times respectively. Last week’s 5-130-1 line was his best of the season, and it marked the second time in the last three weeks that he’s reached 100 receiving yards. Tennessee’s defense has been fairly solid this season, but when they do get beat it’s been wide receivers-and generally on the outside. Just a couple weeks ago we saw both Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams score long touchdowns against the Titans secondary in London. And that’s pretty much what Josh Gordon has done throughout his career-splash plays and long touchdowns. He seems like a steal at just $6k this week. Other potential pivots: Calvin Ridley-WR-Atlanta Falcons-$5800

Mid-Level

Jimmy Graham-TE-Green Bay Packers-$4600: I joked on the podcast the other night that Dolphins linebacker Kiko Alonso couldn’t cover me in the red zone these days, and I was only half joking. The Dolphins have been getting completely smashed by tight ends for about a month now, and it’s not even particularly good ones, as the list of successful fantasy performances includes Trey Burton, Michael Roberts, Jordan Thomas, and Chris Herndon. Over the past four games Miami has allowed 5 touchdown passes in the red zone to tight ends, and Graham is currently second behind Davante Adams in red zone targets for the Packers with 10. Of the four tight ends mentioned above, only Herndon failed to reach the end zone at least once, and he logged a team high 4 catches for a team high 62 yards last week, in a game where the Jets didn’t score a touchdown. Graham should eat here. Other potential pivots: None

Nick Chubb-RB-Cleveland Browns-$5500: There’s always the chance a game can get away when you’re facing the Falcons high powered offense. But Nick Chubb is in such a good spot this week against Atlanta, who ranks 31st against the run according to Football outsiders DVOA metric. With Baker Mayfield struggling, the Browns would be wise to ride Chubb in this matchup, and he should find plenty of running room here. Teammate Duke Johnson Jr. figures to be popular, as Atlanta is near the bottom of the league at defending running backs in the passing game, and many players may wind up point chasing Johnson’s big game from last week-his first of what was supposed to be a much more productive fantasy campaign. We’ve seen Chubb’s big play ability on display already this season, and playing at home against a porous Falcons defense he has 100 yard-2 touchdown upside if the Browns can stay close in this game. And given the Falcons struggles against running backs in the passing game, there’s also a solid chance Chubb sees a few more targets this week as well. Other potential pivots: Tevin Coleman-RB-Atlanta Falcons-$5400

Low Dollar

Jordan Howard-RB-Chicago Bears-$4700: Howard and Tarik Cohen have essentially been splitting snaps evenly over the past four games, but Howard has out-touched Cohen 62-39 over that span. Cohen is certainly the big play threat, but we’ve seen the Bears jump out leads and feed Howard the past couple of games, which resulted in a pair of short touchdowns against the Buffalo in Week 9. Cohen’s production on the other hand, has been very big play dependent of late. To be sure, he’s the more explosive player, but against a Lions defense this week that is allowing more than 5.6 yards per carry to running backs on the season, this feels like a spot where we could see another heavy dose of Jordan Howard in the ground game. Especially because Detroit’s offensive line has been atrocious of late, and with the trade of Golden Tate the offense in general looks lost. Stafford was sacked 10 times by the Vikings last week so going on the road to face the Bears fearsome pass rush is hardly ideal for Detroit. The game script just sets up far better for Howard than Cohen, and with the former able to be had at a significant discount, he makes for a nice running back value this week. Other potential pivots: Duke Johnson Jr.-RB-Cleveland Browns-$4700 and Dion Lewis-RB-Tennessee Titans-$4600

Josh McCown-QB-New York Jets-$4300: Obviously this isn’t a play to load up on in tournaments, but a $4300 starting quarterback not named Nathan Peterman deserves at least a little consideration in large field tournaments. With Sam Darnold on the shelf the Jets will turn to the veteran signal caller, who was actually quite solid as the team’s starting quarterback last season and will have the benefit of playing at home this week. I’m particularly fond of this play if we get word that Robby Anderson is a go, as the two showed good chemistry last season, but in his absence I think you can take a look at Quincy Enunwa, Jermaine Kearse, or perhaps even Elijah McGuire if you’re intent on stacking. But let’s get to the case for McCown, who started and finished 12 games for the Jets last season. Of those dozen games, McCown failed to reach 3x value based on his current price twice-a road game at Buffalo in Week 1 and a home tilt with the Jags in Week 4. Of his ten remaining starts McCown hit between 3x-4x value based on his current price, with an average of 15.3 DK points, in half (3 road and 2 home games) of those. In the other half he exceeded 4x value based on his current price (4 home games and 1 road game) while going for 25+ DK points in four of the five. I think there’s a chance we 20 DK points out of McCown at his bargain basement tag, and I love what it lets you do with the rest of your roster. Other potential pivots: None

Good luck this week!

The views expressed above are my personal takes on the games and strategies I’ve highlighted and I may sometimes play on the platforms and in the games on which I offer advice. With that in mind, please note that I also may employ different players, tactics, and strategies than what I have recommended here.

 
ttgoben's picture

Duke Johnson Jr is the way to attack the Falcons this week. They are giving up an absurd amount of catches to opposing running backs and with the $800 in savings he has a much higher ceiling. If Grady Jarrett plays, i'm out on Chubb. If he doesn't play, he has an OK floor. Duke>Chubb. Respectfully

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