DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 11

17 Nov 2018 - 5:57pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 17 Nov 2018 - 5:57pm | Likes: 37 Like 

Welcome to the DFS 6-Pack, where every week I provide 6 picks, with two high dollar, two mid-level, and two low-dollar players to consider for your DFS tournament lineups. I alternate weekly between DraftKings and FanDuel for picks and pricing in order to make sure I’m covering GPP plays for folks playing on both of those sites. Here in Week 11 we’re going to use FanDuel pricing, as we look to unearth some interesting GPP options. The goal is to find players that can return enough value to be tournament viable, while also thinking through where some of the pivots to the more chalky plays will be that week so we get a little differentiation in our lineups. Now that you know the deal, let’s get after it!

High Dollar

Alvin Kamara-RB-New Orleans Saints-: The Eagles and Saints square off this week in a game that has the highest Vegas projected total on the Sunday main slate. At the same time, Kamara’s ownership figures to be outside the top five running backs (and perhaps even the top ten), given how many stud rushers find themselves in fantastic matchups this week and are priced below FanDuel’s highest priced running back. Given that scenario, it makes quite a bit of sense to consider rostering a veritable matchup proof running back in Kamara. As of Friday afternoon, Vegas has the Saints scoring upwards of 32 points, and it’s hard to imagine a game script where that kind of barrage won’t include a big fantasy day from the Saints biggest weapon. As the season has worn on the Eagles haven’t been quite as formidable against the run as we’d expected. And despite holding Christian McCaffrey in check a few weeks ago, they’ve also allowed two massive fantasy days to Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott over their last four games. On the road at New Orleans isn’t a place I expect this defense to find success, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Kamara wound up the week’s top scoring running back so it could make sense to be over the field here. Other potential pivots: Saquon Barkley-RB-New York Giants-$8800 and Christian McCaffrey-RB-Carolina Panthers-$8600  

Leonard Fournette-RB-Jacksonville Jaguars-$7600: Fournette is another potential stud running back that is likely to take an ownership hit on this slate. Though he faces the league’s 10th ranked rush defense according to Football Outsiders DVOA metric, it’s a team that he’s had a fair amount of success against so far in his NFL career. Yes, it’s a limited sample size, but 28 carries for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns in the regular season and 25 carries for 109 yards and 3 touchdowns in the postseason (both at Pittsburgh) last year, have to raise some eyebrows. Additionally, in a back and forth shootout-type game at Indianapolis last week, Fournette caught 5 passes for 56 yards and a touchdown. It’s a strong sign that the Jags are going to try to keep Fournette on the field as much as possible. Now healthy coming off the hamstring injury that cost him most of the season, Fournette got a full workload of 29 touches last week, and this looks like a spot where we should see more of the same. Other potential pivots: David Johnson-RB-Arizona Cardinals-$7900

Mid-Level

O.J. Howard-TE-Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Giants haven’t taken the same beating as in years past from tight ends this season, but it might have more to do with their ineffectiveness at stopping teams from basically doing anything else they want that’s skewing the numbers. Still, surrendering just 1 touchdown to the tight end position is pretty impressive for a team that surrendered a league leading 13 scores last season. That likely changes this week, as Fitzmagic and the Bucs come to town. Further solidifying the case for Howard is the questionable status of wide receiver Chris Godwin, who’s largely worked out of the slot this season. Coming off a big Week 10, Tampa Bay may be without his services, which should mean a few additional targets for Howard. It’s also worth noting that the Giants have surrendered a league leading 6 receiving scores to running backs. And despite last week’s 8 catch, 102 yard receiving day for Jacquizz Rodgers, that’s not really what Tampa Bay wants to do. Instead, getting the ball to guys like Howard, Godwin, and Adam Humphries underneath, has been far more typical of the Tampa offense than targeting running backs in the passing game. This week should be no different. Other potential pivots: Greg Olsen-TE-Carolina Panthers-$6500   

T.Y. Hilton-WR-Indianapolis Colts-$6800: I noted last week in my write up of Josh Gordon that Tennessee’s defense has struggled with big play receivers that possess elite speed. The Pats missed some places in that game, but Gordon saw plenty of targets. Perhaps no player better personifies that description of big plays generated by elite speed than T. Y. Hilton, especially when playing at home on the fast Inday turf. Coming off a hamstring injury that cost him multiple weeks, Hilton now appears to be back at full strength and posted 3 catches for 77 yards against Jacksonville’s talented secondary in a full complement of snaps. He should surpass those numbers with ease against the Titans, and I expect he’ll be even more heavily involved in the offense this week. In Tennessee he faces a defense that is giving up big production to number one wideouts this season, and Luck is unlikely to have as much success targeting his tight ends as he did against Jacksonville last week. Other potential pivots: Kenny Golladay-WR-Detroit Lions-$6400 and Golden Tate-Wr-Philadelphia Eagles-$6600

Low Dollar

Eli Manning-QB-New York Giants-$6700: The ultimate tournament play, Eli Manning gets to face arguably the league’s worst secondary at home this week. But while Tampa Bay can’t stop anyone through the air, they’ve been fairly proficient against opposing rushing attacks when healthy. Back to full strength after a couple tough weeks, the Bucs don’t have an easy task in slowing down Giants running back Saquon Barkley, but he has the ability to do plenty of damage through the air as well. Coming in at a bargain basement price on FanDuel, Manning posted 3 touchdowns on Monday night despite not throwing for a ton of yardage (just 188 yards passing), but he has thrown for over 300 yards in three of the Giants past five games, and none of those matchups has been as good as this week’s spot against the Bucs. I think some QB-RB-WR stacks this week like Brees-Kamara-Thomas or Big Ben-Conner-JuJu/Brown will be popular, but I think stacking up Eli with Barkley and Beckham will go a bit overlooked, and it arguably has as high a ceiling as any of the others given the Giants high projected point total (27) and the concentrated production in this offense. Other potential pivots: Blake Bortles-QB-Jacksonville Jaguars-$6800

Alex Collins-RB-Baltimore Ravens: With Joe Flacco doubtful for Sunday the Ravens will undoubtedly lean on their running game with either rookie Lamar Jackson of Robert Griffin III under center. And the matchup is ripe for success, as Baltimore will face a Bengals team that is allowing the third most fantasy points to the running back position. Since Week 3 the Bengals are giving up more than 136 rushing yards per game to running back, at a clip of nearly 5.5 yards per carry, along with 7 rushing scores. In the first meeting between these teams, much of the Ravens backfield work went to Javorius Allen, as the team was playing from behind for most of the game. Baltimore should be able to avoid that scenario this time around, with the Bengals offense proving to be somewhat toothless minus stud wideout A.J. Green, who found the end zone three times in the last meeting between these two. Collins doesn’t have much involvement in the passing game, and in fact, we’ll need to see how those touches shake out between Allen and the newly acquired Ty Montgomery. But neither one should need to be utilized heavily here as I expect the Ravens to roll on both sides of the football. Other potential pivots: Dion Lewis-RB-Tennessee Titans-$5900

Good luck this week!

The views expressed above are my personal takes on the games and strategies I’ve highlighted and I may sometimes play on the platforms and in the games on which I offer advice. With that in mind, please note that I also may employ different players, tactics, and strategies than what I have recommended here.

 

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