DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 13

2 Dec 2017 - 10:30pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 4 Dec 2017 - 7:36pm | Likes: 0

This week we’re looking at DraftKings plays and pricing, and talking about the main slate (13 games) over there. If value is your thing then this is the week for you. Stars and scrubs is going to be a popular strategy so don’t overlooking getting different in tournaments by simply running out a balanced lineup. Cheap quarterbacks and mid-level tight ends are going to be heavily owned in both tournaments and cash games as well, so paying up at either position is another way to get an edge on the field. With all of that in mind, let’s look at our Week11 plays.

As always, I look to alternate between DraftKings and FanDuel for the picks and pricing in order to make sure I’m covering GPP plays for folks playing on both of those sites. Here in Week 13 we’re going to use DraftKings pricing, as we look to unearth some interesting tournament options. As I do every week, I’ll be giving you two high dollar, two mid-level, and two low-dollar players to consider for your tournament lineups. Part of what we’re doing here is looking for players that can return enough value to be tournament viable, but we’re also attempting to think through where some of the pivots to the more chalky plays of the week will be in order to get a little differentiation in our lineup. Here are my picks for the weekend ahead.

High Dollar

Travis Kelce-TE-Kansas City Chiefs ($7000): This is a week where paying down at tight end should be a very popular strategy. Hunter Henry and Jared Cook are both very reasonably priced, and draw matchups against two of the worst teams in the league at defending the tight end position. Rob Gronkowski also enters the week healthy, and any time he’s available on the main slate owners are going to gravitate toward him. A best guess ahead of Sunday is that those three players will make up around 40% or more of the tight end ownership. That likely means a low owned Kelce against a Jets defense that is in the bottom ten in fantasy points allowed to the tight end position in its own right. Coming off his second worst performance of the season and carrying a $7000 price tag, plenty of potential owners will be scared off in what should be a good spot for him. Josh McCown has actually managed to run the Jets offense effectively from week to week, and we know how bad the Chiefs secondary has been this season. Playing at home the Jets may even force the Chiefs to play catch up, and it’s hard to envision that’s even remotely possible without a big game from Kelce.

Michael Thomas-WR-New Orleans ($6900): On the season Michael Thomas is averaging 15.0 DK points per game, with an average of just under 6 catches for a little less than 70 yards. At the same time he’s topped 100 yards receiving just once, and has found the end zone only twice this season. That takes some serious consistency, even he’s been monumentally frustrating to roster each week. For a player averaging 8.5 targets per contest, the lack of fantasy points is somewhat staggering. But much like Julio Jones’ did last week, at some point the numbers need to regress to the norm. Despite only drawing the 100 yard bonus once on the season, Thomas has topped 80 receiving yards on five other occasions. The inability to cross that threshold seems relatively unsustainable at the pace of his current production. The same can be said when it comes to the touchdowns. Just two scores on the season makes sense when we look at the success rate of the Saints two stud running backs this season and their utilization in the red zone. But this also seems like a spot where Brees and company will need to turn to Thomas. According to Football Outsiders the Carolina defense is ranked 5th in DVOA against opposing rushing attacks, and 11th against running backs in the passing game. At the same time, this defense is 24th in DVOA against opposing WR1s. Playing at home in a crucial divisional matchup, it’s hard to imagine a better spot for Thomas, with a falling price, underwhelming numbers in recent weeks, and a bevy of frustrated players swearing him off ahead of what should be an ideal matchup.    

Mid Tier

Case Keenum-QB-Minnesota Vikings ($6000): With guys like Brett Hundley and Josh McCown in ideal matchups at lower price tags, I expect Keenum to be massively overlooked this week. I also think that’s a mistake. Since the Teddy Bridgewater “return” rumbling started up, Keenum has thrown for 280 yards or more in each of his last four games, accounting for 10 touchdowns (9 passing and 1 rushing) en route to four straight wins. This week he’ll face off against the Falcons, who while white hot on offense, have given up a pile of yards and points the past couple weeks. Though I believe in the Vikings defense, on the road and in the dome at Atlanta is a tough place to play. We could easily see a shootout in this one, as the Redskins passing attack put a few of this Minnesota defense’s vulnerabilities on tape in Week 10, and we saw Matthew Stafford and the Lions find some success in Week 12 as well. Assuming the Falcons can pick up where they’ve left off the past couple weeks on offense, Keenum and the Vikings will need to generate points. And with him going against a Falcons defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, there’s a path to a big week here for Keenum.

Dion Lewis-RB-New England Patriots ($5500): Over New England’s last four games, Lewis has taken on the primary ball carrier role, averaging nearly 14 carries per game since Week 8. In that same span his yards per carry jumped from 2.9 per tote in Week 8, to 3.9 in Week 10, 6.0 in Week 11, to 7.5 in Week 12. Do I think he’s going to make another major jump up in Week 13? No. But can he easily see the same level of success that we’ve witnessed over the last couple weeks? Absolutely! Buffalo fields one of the league’s worst rushing defenses, and I’m more inclined to think last week’s Herculean effort against the Chiefs has far more to do with a Kansas City offense heading in the wrong direction, than a Bills squad heading in the right one. As I noted on the podcast this week, in the three weeks leading up to last Sunday’s game at Arrowhead, the Bills had allowed 614 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns on 109 carries running back carries, in just their three games (Weeks 9-11). The Patriots have looked like the Patriots after a difficult first month of 2017, and this should be a spot where Lewis rumbles. It’s also worth noting that he’s seen an increased role in the passing game in recent weeks as well, with 5 catches on 6 targets for 29 yards and a score in a pair of blowout wins against Miami and Oakland. At his current price tag he’s still way too cheap for the role he’s presently playing in this offense.

Lower Tier

Corey Coleman-WR-Cleveland Browns ($4300): Coleman has been Deshone Kizer’s number one target since returning, having seen 19 passes in just his first two games back. And with the Josh Gordon hype train in full effect, I expect plenty of folks to take an interest in rostering the former fantasy stud. That just seems bonkers to me, given that Gordon hasn’t set foot on an NFL field in nearly 3 three years, and by his own admission, when he was at his best he was generally under the influence of one or more substances. As talented as he was when we last saw him, and as much as I wish him well, it’s hard to imagine he’s suddenly going to step back in and pick up where he left off. He’s also just starting to get reps with a rookie quarterback dealing with struggles of his own. In the meantime, Coleman has been with Kizer from the start of camp, and the two have shown tremendous chemistry when Coleman has been healthy. I have a hard time thinking the delta between these two is the $200 difference in price we see, let alone the fact that I expect Gordon to exceed and potentially double Coleman’s ownership on name value alone. I think we might very well see the same explosive Josh Gordon at some point this season, but to me this spot is just so much better for Coleman for the Chargers top corner, Casey Hayward looking doubtful and the Los Angeles offense firing on all cylinders right now.

Cordarrelle Patterson-WR -Oakland Raiders ($3400): Patterson is not a good wide receiver, but sometimes opportunity and volume need to trump skill set. And here’s the thing, Patterson is an explosive player with the ball in his hands. Unfortunately, he’s simply proven throughout his career that he’s unlikely to develop as an NFL wide receiver, particularly when it comes to running routes. This week Derek Carr and the Raiders will be without both Amari Cooper (injury) and Michael Crabtree (suspension), and that puts Patterson in line for work across from Seth Roberts in two receiver sets. Even better is the fact that Oakland will face off against a Giants defense that has looked disinterested lately in a lost season, and just sent top corner Janoris Jenkins to IR. That should mean Roberts will draw more Eli Apple, with Patterson seeing a lot of Ross Cockrell (Jenkins replacement). Cockrell is a below average corner and comes into the week ranked 78th overall among corners by Pro Football Focus, in limited snaps. He won’t be able to hang with Patterson who is coming off a week in which he caught 3 of 4 targets for 72 yards, much of that coming after Crabtree was tossed. Assuming Patterson gets 6-8 targets, which seems like a decent bet in this game, he’ll have ample opportunity to capitalize against a Giants secondary that has allowed four touchdown pass plays of 45 yards or more since Week 9. He should also continue to return kicks on special teams which provides a little double dip opportunity as well.

Good luck this week!

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