DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 13

30 Nov 2018 - 4:51pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 30 Nov 2018 - 4:51pm | Likes: 27 Like 

Welcome to the DFS 6-Pack, where every week I provide 6 picks, with two high dollar, two mid-level, and two low-dollar players to consider for your DFS tournament lineups. I alternate weekly between DraftKings and FanDuel for picks and pricing in order to make sure I’m covering GPP plays for folks playing on both of those sites. Here in Week 13 we’re going to use DraftKings pricing, as we look to unearth some interesting GPP options. The goal is to find players that can return enough value to be tournament viable, while also thinking through where some of the pivots to the more chalky plays will be that week so we get a little differentiation in our lineups. Now that you know the deal, let’s get after it!

High Dollar

Mike Evans-WR-Tampa Bay Buccaneers-$8100: With the news that DeSean Jackson has been ruled out, the popularity of Tampa Bay receivers Adam Humphries and Chris Godwin should jump significantly, and the same will likely be true of tight end Cameron Brate. In a game with a Vegas projected total of 54 points and just a field goal spread, there are no shortage of options to get exposure on the Bucs side of the ball, and that usually means owners will lean towards players that think they’re rostering at a discount. No such discount is available on Evans, who has been targeted 15 times in the Bucs last two games, and has turned those into a dozen receptions for 236 yards and a score. And some of that production even came with Jackson and O.J. Howard (who is now on IR) on the field. At this point the targets in the Bucs passing game are becoming even more predictable due to injury, and this week’s Carolina defense appears to be just a shell of the one that held Evans in check just a month ago. Since that win in Carolina, the Panthers have lost three straight, allowing more than 1100 yards (856 of it through the air) of offense and 102 points over the stretch. Just as importantly, we know Tampa Bay’s defense has been getting torched all season, meaning even a lead for this team doesn’t allow for the offense to take its foot off the gass. In such a good spot for Tampa Bay’s passing attack, there’s a strong case for playing the stud wideout at the top of the pecking order. Other potential pivots: DeAndre Hopkins-WR-Houston Texans-$8200 and Adam Thielen-WR-Minnesota Vikings-$8000

Odell Beckham-WR-New York Giants-$7800: With a bevy of stud running backs in great spots this week, paying up at receiver is an easy way to get some very different roster construction, and paying up for multiple receivers is going to be really unique. Obviously, these picks aren’t designed to be used in a single lineup construction, but pairing Evans and Beckham is going way off the board. If you’ve followed my stuff for any amount of time, you know I’m a big believer in teams “oiling” the squeaky wheel. After the Eagles injury riddled secondary got destroyed at New Orleans in Week 11, the Giants game plan seemed to completely ignore that weakness, a fact Beckham lamented over in the post-game press conference. Evan Engram has already been ruled out for this week, and running back Saquon Barkley, as good as he is (and he’s really freaking good), is going to have his work cut out for him against the Chicago front seven. The one spot the Bears can be beaten is by catch and run receivers like Beckham. This play comes down the Giants offensive line and their ability to keep Eli upright, something they actually did a solid job of against the Eagles last week. With Chase Daniel starting at quarterback for Chicago, the Giants should be able to keep this one close. A $7700 Beckham is just too cheap, and now is the time to play him, coming off a disappointing week where he was chalk. Other potential pivots: Davante Adams-WR-Green Bay Packers-$7900

Mid-Level

Chris Carson-RB-Seattle Seahawks-$5200: On paper San Francisco may not look like the greatest matchup for opposing rushing attacks, but they’ve been hammered by some good rushing attacks, such as the those of the two Los Angeles teams, while benefitting from a variety of favorable matchups, including two games against an inept Mike McCoy led Cardinals offense. They also released troubled, yet talented starting linebacker Reuben Foster ahead of last week’s game, a player with a big role in the run defense’s success in the first half. At the same time, Chris Carson has been the unquestioned leader of the Seahawks backfield when healthy, and has 17 and 18 carries in the last two weeks respectively. This game is in Seattle, where late season contests between division rivals often turn into the kind of slugfest that would favor a Seattle team that very much wants to run the football. But I actually expect this one to get away from San Francisco early, and stacking up the Seahawks defense with their leading ball carrier makes quite a bit of sense. After his hot start, Nick Mullens has come back down to earth, and at no point has that been more apparent than in San Francisco’s inability to get anything going against Tampa Bay last week. It was the first time all season that Tampa Bay held a team under 10 points, and just the second time all year they allowed less than 21 points, as the Bucs have routinely been coughing up 400 yard-30 point days to opposing offenses this season. If the 49ers and Mullens couldn’t get it done in that spot, then a December road game in Seattle could be rather brutal. I like Carson to go over 20 carries and find the end zone at least once here.    

Tom Brady-QB-New England Patriots-$5800: We talked about this on the podcast this week, as anyone who’s been playing DFS for awhile would be hard pressed to overlook a sub $6000 Tom brady on DraftKings. With Minnesota coming to town this week, Brady is at his lowest price point of the season, and at the same time Vegas is projecting the Patriots to score 28 points against a Vikings defense that ranks 6the overall in DVOA (4th against the run and 8th against the pass). Those points have to come from somewhere, and Brady seems like the logical choice. With Vikings top corner Xavier Rhodes questionable for Sunday, pinning down who to stack with Brady becomes more difficult. If he goes it’s logical to assume Josh Gordon will see the most of Rhodes, which makes him a poor option and ups my interest in players like Julian Edelman and James White (the Vikings have actually allowed production to running backs in the passing game this season). There’s probably a case to be made for Gronk as well, but as we discussed on the podcast, you have to pay for him and no one knows just how healthy Gronk is, while Minnesota has been very good against tight ends of late. Should Rhodes sit, all signs point to loading up on Gordon, who should have a field day against speedy, but slight #2 corner, Trae Waynes. I also don’t mind running Brady out solo if this is still a murky situation on Sunday morning. He’s going to be productive if this game turns into the shootout we talked about on the podcast this week. Other potential options: Matt Ryan-QB-Atlanta Falcons-$5600 and Kirk Cousins-QB-Minnesota Vikings-$5500

Low Dollar

Peyton Barber-RB-Tampa Bay Buccaneers-$3700: For those who listen to the podcast this pick won’t be a surprise, as I’ve been beating the drum for Barber for a couple weeks now. Barber has posted 22 and 14.3 DK points respectively in Tampa Bay’s last two games, logging 20 touches in both of those contests. When these two teams met in Carolina a few weeks ago, Barber had an awful fantasy day, running for just 31 yards on 11 carries and adding 2 receptions for 9 yards. That was a game in which Carolina jumped out to a massive lead and Barber was mostly game scripted out by the second quarter, even with Tampa Bay making a comeback. Since then, Barber’s production has been trending up, while the Carolina defense has been trending down. Dating back to their Thursday night game in Pittsburgh in Week 10, the Panthers have allowed 32.5, 25.8, and 19.9 fantasy points to running backs in their last three. And the fact that the Carolina secondary is struggling to contain even mediocre passing attacks like the the short-handed Lions and unimposing Seahawks the past couple weeks, means Carolina could be forced to drop more defenders into coverage, helping open up additional running room for Barber in what projects as on of the higher scoring games on the slate. Other potential pivots: Frank Gore-RB-Miami Dolphins-$3500

Ty Montgomery-RB-Baltimore Ravens-$3600: You’ll note that I’m running back heavy here this week, and a big part of it is that I think you can really jump the field in some of these spots. I expect Montgomery’s ownership to be less than 1% this week, and with the PPR value of running backs on DraftKings, guys like Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey are going to be massively owned, and the same hold true for Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley in cupcake matchups. You can’t play Ty-Mont in anything but tournaments, and he’s definitely not someone I’d throw in my first five lineups, but Atlanta is working on a multi-year stretch of being league-worst at defending running backs in the passing game. The Ravens didn’t trade for Montgomery mid-season because they wanted to keep playing Buck Allen, and new starting running back Gus Edwards is more of a banger than a receiver. Despite Baltimore’s defense, the Falcons should be able to put points on the board here, as their lowest point total at home all season was the 19 they scored against the Cowboys in Week 11, and they’ve gone over 30 points in four of their other five home games this season. That makes it unlikely the Ravens can just get away with running Edwards and Lamar Jackson 45+ times, and Montgomery is a good way for Jackson to get some high percentage plays to a player that can do damage in space. Last week was Montgomery’s second game active for the Ravens, and in a spot where the team was in control for most of the afternoon, he still played 40% of the snaps and got 11 touches (8 carries and 3 receptions). He should see even more work this week, and at his price tag, and with this matchup, he’s a tempting tournament flyer on a site where you can roster three running backs. Other potential pivots: None

Good luck this week!

The views expressed above are my personal takes on the games and strategies I’ve highlighted and I may sometimes play on the platforms and in the games on which I offer advice. With that in mind, please note that I also may employ different players, tactics, and strategies than what I have recommended here.

 

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