DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 14

8 Dec 2018 - 8:11pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 8 Dec 2018 - 8:11pm | Likes: 29 Like 

Welcome to the DFS 6-Pack, where every week I provide 6 picks, with two high dollar, two mid-level, and two low-dollar players to consider for your DFS tournament lineups. I alternate weekly between DraftKings and FanDuel for picks and pricing in order to make sure I’m covering GPP plays for folks playing on both of those sites. Here in Week 14 we’re going to use FanDuel pricing, as we look to unearth some interesting GPP options. The goal is to find players that can return enough value to be tournament viable, while also thinking through where some of the pivots to the more chalky plays will be that week so we get a little differentiation in our lineups. Now that you know the deal, let’s get after it!

High Dollar

Nick Chubb-RB-Cleveland Browns-$7700: Sandwiched between Phillip Lindsay and Aaron Jones in price, and in a less than ideal spot against a solid Carolina run defense, Chubb isn’t likely to be a popular option this week. But even in a subpar matchup, Chubb’s workload seems all but locked in on a weekly basis. In the six games since Carlos Hyde was traded, Chubb has averaged 19 carries and 2.5 targets per game, and that includes last week’s difficult matchup against the Texans, in which the game script helped hold him to just a dozen touches overall. Carolina’s defense simply isn’t on the same level. Also encouraging is the fact that over the past three games he’s reeled in 9 passes for 118 yards and two touchdowns. It’s an indication that the Browns are trying to get the ball in his hands as often as they can, which make sense given his explosiveness. While he’s only been the starting running back for about half of Cleveland’s games this season, limiting him to just 131 carries, Chubb has found the end zone seven times and has rushed for 10 yards or more on nearly 14 percent of his totes. It’s a sneaky spot for a player with 100 yard rushing-2 touchdown upside, even against the Panthers defense. Other potential pivots: Aaron Jones-RB-Green Bay Packers-$7500    

Keenan Allen-WR-Los Angeles Chargers-$7900: Do I think we’re going to see Phillip Rivers target Keenan Allen 19 times again this week? No. But do I think Allen will continue to be a locked-on target for Rivers out of the slot, with Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson in the backfield? Absolutely! With Gordon so heavily targeted in the passing game all season (6 targets per game) and Ekeler already heavily involved in that aspect of the Chargers offense working in tandem with Gordon, the extra targets had to go somewhere. Since they returned from their Week 7 game in London and then a Week 8 bye, Allen has carded either 100 receiving yards or a touchdown in five straight games, with touchdown receptions now in four straight games coming into this one and an average of 11+ targets per game over that stretch. The matchup with Cincinnati is a fantastic one, and it’s a game in which the Chargers are projected to score more than 31 points according to Vegas. One has to assume their top wideout plays a role in the output. Other potential pivots: Tyreek Hill-WR-Kansas City Chiefs-$8200

Mid Tier

Lamar Miller-RB-Houston Texans-$6500: If you’ve played NFL DFS consistently over the past few seasons then there’s a good chance you’ve had the “pleasure” of rostering Lamar Miller. Or more correctly, you’ve probably rostered a popular Lamar Miller and then watched it blow up in your face along with thousands of other owners. And after it happened more than a few times you probably swore him off, as did many others, and with good reason. Since coming to Houston as a big offseason signing in 2016, he was slated to be the bellcow back of the future for the Texans. But Miller averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry over his first two seasons and rushed for 100 yards just four times over his first 30 games with houston. And this season looked like more of the same, with Miller plodding along to the same sub 4.0 ypc average and even losing rushing work to Alfred Blue at times early on. Then came Week 7, where Miller busted out for a 22-100-1 line at Jacksonville and has followed it up with three additional 100 yard rushing games in his last five outings. At present he is leading the NFL in rushing yards since Week 7. Indianapolis is no cakewalk as far as rushing matchups go, but this ia a home game for the Texans and could all but lock up the division for Houston. Miller should be a low-owned option and has burned so many owners of the years that he likely continues to fly under the radar. Other potential pivots: Josh Adams-RB-Philadelphia Eagles-$6400 and Mark Ingram-RB-New Orleans Saints-$6700  

Amari Cooper-WR-Dallas Cowboys-$6900: I talked about not wanting to play “chalk” Amari Cooper on the podcast this week. And as of this writing I’ve yet to see an ownership projection on Cooper that even approaches 10%, which probably lands him at around the 15th-20th most popular receiver so now I’m super interested. Philadelphia’s secondary is an absolute dumpster fire by nearly every metric imaginable. One of the ones that jumps out is their inability to contain WR1’s as the Eagles are allowing 88.4 yards per game, second only to Washington’s 88.5. When these two last met in Cooper’s second game as a Cowboy, he was targeted 10 times and caught 6 balls for 75 yards. Since coming to Dallas he’s been averaging 8 targets per game and is unquestionably the top target for Dak Prescott in the passing game. Only the Saints have allowed more fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position than Philly, and this is a spot where he can certainly go off for a monster performance. Other potential pivots: JuJu Smith-Schuster-WR-Pittsburgh Steelers-$7500 and Josh Gordon-WR-New England Patriots-$6700

Low Dollar

Rob Gronkowski-TE-New England-$6200: Ok, maybe it’s not “low dollar,” but it’s salary saving to a certain extent. I’m not sure I buy that Gronk is fully healthy at this stage, but given the matchup, I’m not sure it matters. We talked on the podcast this week about how the Patriots have struggled on the road against Miami, losing 4 of their last six regular season games against the Dolphins. It’s sort of bizarre, but could work to our advantage in fantasy if we think history repeats itself and this game stays close. Since Week 6 Miami is allowing more than 16 fantasy points per game to tight ends, and over that stretch has surrendered 8 touchdowns to the position. Over that span they’ve faced such household names as Chris Herndon, Michael Roberts and Jordan Thomas-the latter two of which each carded two scores against them, as did Eric Ebron. I have to believe Belichick and company are well aware of the Dolphins red zone deficiencies versus tight ends, and it just so happens they have one of the best to ever play the game at the position. Even at 75%, this is a spot where we could see a full on Gronk-smash.  Other potential pivots: None

LeSean McCoy-RB-Buffalo Bills-$5700: When these teams met a few weeks ago it was Matt Barkley quarterbacking for Buffalo, but between the defense and McCoy it didn’t much matter. Shady ripped off 113 yards and 2 scores on 26 carries in that game, and added a reception on his lone target for 5 yards. Sam Darnold returns as the Jets starter and will be on the road at Buffalo, where it’s projected to be 31 degrees at kick-off with wind swirling at 15-20 mph, making it feel like closer to 20. I’m inclined to think it’s not the best environment for a kid who group up in the LA area, went to USC, and now makes his return in one of the least hospitable environments in the NFL against an underrated defense. The Bills should win the field position game here, and stacking McCoy with the Buffalo defense should be a profitable endeavor. The big concern for McCoy is the rushing of rookie quarterback Josh Allen, who has totaled 234 yards on the ground over the past two weeks. He should be less of a factor here in a game the Bills should be able to control. It’s also worth noting that McCoy has still carried the ball 32 times over the past two weeks, even with all the running Allen is doing. Other potential pivots: Jeff Wilson Jr.-RB-San Francisco-$5600

Good luck this week!

The views expressed above are my personal takes on the games and strategies I’ve highlighted and I may sometimes play on the platforms and in the games on which I offer advice. With that in mind, please note that I also may employ different players, tactics, and strategies than what I have recommended here.

 
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