DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 15

15 Dec 2018 - 3:46pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 15 Dec 2018 - 5:14pm | Likes: 34 Like 
DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 15

Welcome to the DFS 6-Pack, where every week I provide 6 picks, with two high dollar, two mid-level, and two low-dollar players to consider for your DFS tournament lineups. I alternate weekly between DraftKings and FanDuel for picks and pricing in order to make sure I’m covering GPP plays for folks playing on both of those sites. Here in Week 15 we’re going to use DraftKings pricing, as we look to unearth some interesting GPP options. The goal is to find players that can return enough value to be tournament viable, while also thinking through where some of the pivots to the more chalky plays will be that week so we get a little differentiation in our lineups. Now that you know the deal, let’s get after it!

High Dollar

Leonard Fournette-RB-Jacksonville Jaguars-$7500: Last week Saquon Barkley torched the Redskins defense for 170 yards and a score on just 14 carries. And nearly all of that came in just the first half, as the Giants were essentially on cruise control from the midway point. Mark Sanchez actually made some decent throws that were dropped, before giving way to Josh Johnson. But the real story here was the Washington defense, which looked like they’d rather be anywhere but on a football field. And with the season all but lost now, they’ll head to Jacksonville to take on the Jags. On his way to a big day Buffalo a few weeks ago (18-95-2), Fournette got tossed for fighting and then served a one game suspension before returning against the Titans last Thursday night. But he was completely gamescripted out of that matchup when Derrick Henry went nuts and ran for 238 and 4 touchdowns on just 17 carries. That won’t be the case here unless Adrian Peterson somehow finds the wayback machine, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where Fournette doesn’t see 20+ carries in a game the Jags should be able to control. He should also see some short fields, as the combination of a banged up offensive line and a couple bad journeymen quarterbacks will likely struggle against the Jacksonville secondary. Last week marked the fourth straight game in which the Redskins allowed at least 128 rushing yards to running backs, and the fifth time in their last sixth. It’s a streak that’s likely to continue here with Fournette. Other potential pivots: None in this price range

Josh Gordon-WR-New England Patriots-$6400: Gordon has double digit fantasy points in all but one game since Week 7, and has done it while only finding the end zone twice over that span. Coming into the Patriots visit to Pittsburgh this Sunday, Gordon would seem to be well positioned for success in a game with a 54 point Vegas projected total-the highest on the Week 15 slate. Furthermore, this is a Steelers squad that has been giving it up in the passing game of late. Between Week 6 and Week 12 the secondary had allowed no more than 213 passing yards and had kept four of its six opponents under 200 yards through the air. But that stretch marked a weak set of opponents and Pittsburgh has been struggling significantly since the schedule got tougher. In Week 13 and 14 Pittsburgh allowed 286 and 299 passing yards to Phillip Rivers and Derek Carr. That’s hardly a trend you want to see, especially with the explosive Gordon averaging nearly 8 targets per game over his last five. He should make at least one splash play in this game and he seems like a solid bet to top 100 yards and find the end zone. Other potential pivots: Tyler Lockett-WR-Seattle Seahawks-$6200

Mid Tier

Chris Carson-RB-Seattle Seahawks-$5600: If you been around WkiPigskin awhile, you’re likely familiar with my affinity for Chris Carson. With the news that Rashaad Penny will miss this week, Carson’s already solidified role as the primary ball carrier could include a few extra touches. Penny is certainly more of a home run threat, but Carson has been very productive, with between 13.3 and 15 DK points in every game he’s played since Week 11. Those games all came with his price in the $4000s or low $5000s, and now he’s climbing a bit. Still, the matchup is a good one, with San Francisco allowing 22+ fantasy points to the running back position in each of their past three games, including 27.3 to Seahawks backs just a couple weeks ago in Seattle. Mike Davis will also be involved here, but Carson is coming off an impressive performance against a very good Vikings run defense last week, and should be a lock for 20+ touches against San Francisco. Russell Wilson has just 37 total pass attempts over the past two weeks, as Seattle and Pete Carroll seem to be returning to their run first ways. It’s a game in which the Seahawks are favored by a field goal, and one that can put them in the driver’s seat for a Wild Card berth. I’m betting Carson is the guy that helps salt it away late and that he finds the end zone at least once here. Other potential pivots: Joe Mixon-RB-Cincinnati Bengals-$6100 and Tarik Cohen-RB-Chicago Bears-$6300  

Tom Brady-QB-New England Patriots-$5900: With respect to Josh Gordon, I talked a bit about the struggles of Pittsburgh’s secondary of late, but a lot of that was in the context of big play wide receivers. Last week the Steelers surrendered 10 catches for 148 yards and 2 TDs to Oakland Raiders tight ends. And that was with Derek Carr throwing the football to Jared Cook and company. Here we’re talking about Brady and Gronk. Lost in last week’s miracle finish in Miami was the fact that Brady tuned up the Dolphins for 358 yards and 3 touchdowns, as his big games have largely been necessitated by a suspect New England defense. That defense squares off against a Pittsburgh offense that Vegas is projecting to approach 4 touchdowns, with New England projected to exceed 4 end zone trips of its own on Sunday. According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers come into this one with the NFL’s 7th ranked defense against the run, but are just 21st against the pass. And after last week’s big performance DraftKings has bumped Brady’s price just $100 from last week’s $5800 tag. Meanwhile, folks are clamoring to roster Josh Allen for $5800 or even Lamar Jackson at the same $5900 price. Give me the GOAT in a road shootout against an arch rival that’s allowing the 11th most fantasy points to the quarterback position on the season please. Other potential pivots: Aaron Rodgers-QB-Green Bay Packers-$5700

Low Dollar

Kyle Rudolph-TE-Minnesota Vikings-$3500: I talked about this on the podcast, but let’s rehash because I’m seeing Rudolph projected at like 2%-3% ownership. And coming off a 2 catches for 7 yards performance, the tiny ownership does make some sense. That said, the Dolphins have been absolutely atrocious for a couple months now at defending the tight end position, and despite the less than stellar results, Rudolph is still being targeted consistently, with 5, 3, 7, and 5 targets over his last four games respectively. If you’re a regular reader of this column then you know I was high on Gronk last week against this same Miami defense, and all he did was go out and crush to the tune of 8 catches for 107 yards and a score...and one missed tackle. (Too soon New England fans?). It marked the 7th time in their last 8 games that the Dolphins have given up double digit fantasy points to a starting tight end, and the touchdown was their 9th tight end score allowed over that stretch. Other potential pivots: C.J. Uzomah-TE-Cincinnati Bengals-$3600

Trent Sherfield-WR-Arizona Cardinals-$3400: Who the heck is Trent Sherfield is a reasonable question from most DFS players, or at least it was before he led Arizona in receiving yards last week. The undrafted rookie free agent out of Vanderbilt has been slowly but surely working his way into the receiver rotation for the Cardinals, but his snap percentage jumped up to 93% last week against Detroit. Look, there’s nothing exciting about the Arizona offense, and Josh Rosen has looked every bit like a rookie in his starts this season, but with Christian Kirk on IR the Arizona receiving corps consists of Sherfield, Larry Fitzgerald, J.J. Nelson, and Jalen Tolliver, who saw his first NFL action last week. Of course all of this assumes that Chad Williams is out again this week. If that’s the case then Sherfield has some boom bust potential as a receiver punt play in tournaments. According to Football Outsiders, Atlanta is the 30th ranked pass defense in the league, and the Falcons, who rarely have trouble putting up points at home, are a 10 point favorite according to Vegas. That should give us some serious garbage time stat potential, and if Sherfield is going to get major work again there’s no reason he can’t replicate last week’s 5 catch, 77 yard stat line. And should he manage to find the end zone, you’re in business. Other potential pivots: Cordarrelle Patterson-WR-New England Patriots-$3400

Good luck this week!

The views expressed above are my personal takes on the games and strategies I’ve highlighted and I may sometimes play on the platforms and in the games on which I offer advice. With that in mind, please note that I also may employ different players, tactics, and strategies than what I have recommended here.

 
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