DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 16

22 Dec 2018 - 1:18pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 22 Dec 2018 - 4:30pm | Likes: 35 Like 
DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 16

I’m going to change things up in the DFS 6-Pack this week and add in some Yahoo-specific plays as well. For those unfamiliar, every week I provide 6 picks, with two high dollar, two mid-level, and two low-dollar players to consider for your DFS tournament lineups. I generally alternate weekly between DraftKings and FanDuel for picks and pricing in order to make sure I’m covering GPP plays for folks playing on both of those sites. But here in Week 16 Yahoo Daily Fantasy Sports is offering a bonkers NFL contest with a $1,000,000 in total in the prize pool and a guaranteed $250,000 in overlay. Top prize is $100,000, entries are $20 a pop, and the entry limit is just ten per player so you can actually max out for just a small investment. It also means at kickoff on Sunday every $20 entry is actually worth $26.67 due to the overlay-and that assumes it fills. Happy Holidays from Yahoo I guess, as they’re clearly throwing a bunch of money around to try to build a competitor to FanDuel and DraftKings.

 

Here in Week 16 we’re going to use FanDuel and Yahoo pricing, as we look to unearth some interesting GPP options. The goal is to find players that can return enough value to be tournament viable, while also thinking through where some of the pivots to the more chalky plays will be that week so we get a little differentiation in our lineups. Now that you know the deal, let’s get after it!

High Dollar

Dalvin Cook-RB-Minnesota Vikings-$7100 (FanDuel) and $23 (Yahoo): Coming off a big Week 15 performance, I do have some concern about the ownership for Cook, but heading into the weekend there’s enough news swirling to suggest that he won’t be a top five owned back this week and may not even make it into the top ten if some injury situations break right. That could be a mistake, as even though the Lions run defense has been better of late, this is still a unit that has given up big runs all season, including an 80 yarder to Cook himself in Week 9. Additionally, Cook has put to bed talk of this backfield being a timeshare with Latavius Murray, seeing 19, 20, and 21 combined carries + targets respectively since returning to a full snap count three weeks ago. He’s averaging better than 6 targets per game over the span and has turned them into 14 catches for 75 yards and a score, and his involvement here helps provide a safer floor than some higher priced backs. He comes in at a reasonable price on both sites and offers relative safety in a game with a middling total that figures to go mostly overlooked this week.

Antonio Brown-WR-Pittsburgh Steelers-$8700 (FanDuel) and $32 (Yahoo): It feels weird to have to say Antonio Brown is a great play this week, but the chatter around a number of the other top targets seems to suggest he may not even garner double digit ownership, and might even be topped by teammate JuJu Smith-Schuster. And while I get the Smith-Schuster love, as the Saints have been smashed by opponents WR2s this season (30th DVOA according to Football Outsiders), I’m more than a little concerned about the mid-week downgrade and limited Friday practice for him due to a groin issue. Even assuming he’s able to play through it, we could see him used as more of a decoy, and a mid-game setback for an injury like this is always a concern. Finally, the matchup isn’t quite as bad for Brown as one might think. He probably sees a bunch of Marshon Lattimore in coverage, but he hasn’t been quite so shutdown this season. The Saints are ranked just 20th DVOA against teams’ top wideouts this season, as the delta between their ineptitude against WR2s and WR1s has been closing over the course of the season, including a 6-114-1 line to Brandin Cooks and 11-147-0 to Julio Jones, two of the three number one wideouts they’ve faced at home since Week 9. You have to want to pay for him, but if you’re like me and think we might get a gimpy Smith-Schuster, Brown could see an obscene amount of targets in what is projected to be a shootout.

Yahoo specific play: Chris Carson-RB-Seattle Seahawks-$21: Because the Sunday night game is on the main slate at Yahoo, you’ll have access to the Chiefs and Seahawks here. The high profile guys on both sides of the ball are priced appropriately, or maybe even a little rich in some cases, but Carson doesn’t fall into that bucket. He’s logged 17 touches or more in each of his last five and had 22 carries and 6 receptions in an overtime loss at San Francisco last week. Rashaad Penny was inactive for that game and looks to be headed in the same direction for this week, meaning Carson should see a ton of touches against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. They’ve yielded at least 92 rushing yards and at least one touchdown to the position in six of their last seven games. The only exception was Week 11 when Jared Goff tuned them up for 413 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air and ran for another. With the game off the main slate on the other sites and Carson far from a household name, you could get some serious leverage here if he hits like I think he can.

Mid Tier

Jaylen Samuels-RB-Pittsburgh Steelers-$6700 and $14 (Yahoo): First, let’s acknowledge the obvious in that the Yahoo price is completely ridiculous, as Samuels was priced with the assumption that James Conner would play this week. With the news that Conner is out, Samuels will once again be the primary back for the Steelers. This time it’s on the road at New Orleans, who boasts one of the best run defenses in the league. That said, Samuels was heavily used in his first start on the road at Oakland two weeks ago (7 catches for 64 yards) and he’ll face a New Orleans team that is one of the worst in the league at defending opposing running backs in the passing game. He should be heavily involved in the game plan as a receiver, and is one of those backs who shouldn’t be hurt by a negative game script for the Steelers. He’s a piece that seems to be going a bit overlooked in what is projected to be the highest scoring game on the slate and feature plenty of ownership among other players. I’m not opposed to pairing him up with Antonio Brown either, and then running it back with some Saints on the other side.

Sam Darnold-QB-New York Jets-$6700 (FanDuel) and $22 (Yahoo): This is clearly a GPP only play, but this week’s Packers-Jets game has some sneaky shootout potential. Now that we know Aaron Rodgers will be a full go, and frankly seems a little annoyed at even the suggestion that he be shut down, I expect him to shred the Jets secondary. Furthermore, Robby Anderson is quickly becoming one of the most popular wide receiver plays being touted across the industry. I’m not sure how he gets there without at least a solid week for Darnold. To that end, the Jets rookie quarterback had a very good game against the Texans last Saturday, posting 21.62 fantasy points against a respectable Houston defense. This week’s matchup against the Packers is far better. Green Bay has also struggled against tight ends, particularly of late, and is near the bottom of the league at defending running backs in the passing game. In his last two games, Darnold’s target distribution against Buffalo was 16 of 24 attempts targeting either Robby Anderson or Jets running backs and tight ends, followed by 25 of 38 attempts against Houston last week (both over 65%). Neither team has anything to play for and with the Packers a 2.5 point favorite and the game featuring a Vegas projected total of 46.5, Darnold could easily outperform plenty of higher priced options this week.    

Low Dollar

Chris Hogan-WR-New England Patriots-$5300 (FanDuel) and $10 (Yahoo): With the Josh Gordon news hitting late this week, the Pats find themselves without a real field stretching receiver. Interestingly, Gordon arrived in New England prior to Julian Edelman’s return earlier this season so we don’t have much of a grasp on what this receiving pecking order will look like given its current make up. But we do know that the Patriots are at home and prepping for the playoffs, and they are coming off back to back losses so this is a spot where they need to get back on track. To open the year Hogan saw 5, 5, and 4 targets over the first three games, turning them into 7 catches for 84 yards and 2 TDs. With Gordon starting to see snaps in Week 4, Hogan got just one target in a blowout win against the Dolphins and fell further down the priority list when Edelman was reinstated in Week 5. While his numbers weren’t eye popping at the start of the season, he’s probably not a bargain basement wideout, and last week’s 63 yard touchdown reception is a testament to his big play ability. He’s now been in the system long enough to be trusted through the stretch run and has the benefit of having played at every receiver spot. Additionally, his competition among the receivers amounts to gimmicky Cordarrelle Patterson, and Phillip Dorsett, who’s all but disappeared since Edelman’s return. Hogan is boom bust for sure here, but there’s certainly upside in an increased role, and 5 of his 34 catches this season have gone for touchdowns.

Blake Jarwin-TE-Dallas Cowboys-$4700 (FanDuel) and $10 (Yahoo): The Cowboys have apparently found their tight end for 2018, and it only took until December. Seeing the bulk of the snaps and targets at the position for an offense that appeared to be on the upswing before getting shut out at Indy last week, Jarwin is in a good spot on Sunday against the Bucs. Through Week 15 Tampa Bay has allowed double digit fantasy points (PPR) to the tight end position in all but three games. And that’s all we’re looking for out of a punt play tight end. One of the more interesting aspects of this track record is that they’ve been giving it up to the position all season without allowing that many touchdowns (5). In fact, only the Colts have allowed more fantasy points to the position without surrendering at least half a dozen touchdowns, and many of the teams giving up less have allowed more end zone visits as well. A large part of it is likely their inability to defend slot receivers, but I’m also willing to bet they’ve gotten a bit lucky. As for Jarwin, he’s seen 7 targets in back to back games and has caught 11 balls for 101 yards over the stretch. This seems like a spot where he should be able to get to 5 or 6 catches for 50-70 yards, and if he manages to find the end zone you get a huge leg up on the field.

Good luck this week!

The views expressed above are my personal takes on the games and strategies I’ve highlighted and I may sometimes play on the platforms and in the games on which I offer advice. With that in mind, please note that I also may employ different players, tactics, and strategies than what I have recommended here.

 
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