DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 2

14 Sep 2018 - 5:49pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 14 Sep 2018 - 6:05pm | Likes: 16 Like 
DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 2

For those new to the site or this article in particular, each week we provide a “6-pack” of picks, with two high dollar, two mid-level, and two low-dollar players to consider for your tournament lineups. Each week I alternate between DraftKings and FanDuel for picks and pricing in order to make sure I’m covering GPP plays for folks playing on both of those sites. Here in Week 2 we’re going to use FanDuel pricing, as we look to unearth some interesting GPP options. The goal is to find players that can return enough value to be tournament viable, while also thinking through where some of the pivots to the more chalky plays will be that week so we get a little differentiation in our lineups. Now that you know the deal, away we go!

 

High Dollar

Julio Jones-WR-Atlanta Falcons-$8500: Jones is hardly an off the board play this week, as his ownership percentage will almost certainly be in the teens. But with Antonio Brown, Keenan Allen, and Michael Thomas all in elite Week 2 matchups, all three figure to be more popular options. Much like last season, the Falcons struggled in the red zone against the Eagles in Thursday night’s opener. Offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian’s play calling was suspect at best, as the Falcons drove down the field on their first possession to set up first and goal from the 6-yard line, and then failed to convert the touchdown on three straight plays from the 1-yard line, coming away without any points. Even more inexplicable was the fact that Jones wasn’t utilized at all, and in fact, wasn’t even on the field for that series. It’s something the Falcons coaching regime has been taking quite a bit of heat for this week so this has all the makings of a “squeaky wheel” scenario where Jones could actually get force fed in the red zone on Sunday. Let’s also not overlook the fact that he wrecked a pretty good Philadelphia secondary all night long, totaling 10 catches for 169 yards on 19 targets...19! And his night could have been even bigger, as he had a 50+ yard completion overturned on a questionable replay review and Matt Ryan just flat out under-threw him deep down the middle of the field on what had all the makings of a touchdown late in third quarter. On Friday morning reports started circulating that Devonta Freeman is looking doubtful for Sunday with a knee issue, meaning the Falcons will need to lean heavily on Tevin Coleman rather than mixing and matching the backfield situationally the way they’ve been doing since Coleman’s rookie season. While the loss of Freeman means a larger role for Coleman, it could also give a bump to Jones. And don’t be scared off by Carolina’s defensive effort against the Cowboys in Week 1, as Dallas arguably the most anemic passing offense in the league and Jones has had a solid track record of success against the Panthers, especially at home. We won’t soon forget his 2016 jaw dropping 12-300-1 line in Week 4 at home against Carolina, but the prior season’s 9-178-1 line in Atlanta wasn’t bad either. Even last year’s 5 catches for 80 yards in Week 17 helped secure Atlanta’s playoff berth. This is a great spot for Jones in a game with some sneaky shootout potential on the fast track in Atlanta. Other pivots to consider at a similar price: DeAndre Hopkins-WR-Houston Texans-$8400 and Antonio Brown-WR-Pittsburgh Steelers-$8900

Philip Rivers-QB-Los Angeles Chargers-$7400: Despite throwing for 424 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 1, Rivers checks in as just the twelfth most expensive quarterback on FanDuel. We talked on the podcast this week about the potential blowout factor here and the fact that it could keep many of the Chargers from posting massive lines against a very bad Buffalo squad. While I do believe that’s a concern, I also think it’s what could make Rivers a fantastic play in tournaments. Last week at Baltimore the Ravens were up 33-0 less than two and a half minutes into the third quarter, and by that point Joe Flacco had already tossed all three of his touchdown passes. And that was with the Ravens offense, not the bevy of offensive weapons that surround Philip Rivers in Los Angeles. If there was one bright spot in Week 1 for Buffalo it was the run defense, which gave up 119 yards on the ground, but on 34 carries. Outside of number one corner Tre’Davious White, the Bills secondary is disaster, and I expect Rivers to take heavy advantage of it early on in this game. With Josh Allen making his first career start the Bills might not be able to generate enough offense to flip field position with any regularity, but I still think Rivers has three plus touchdown upside here. It might not come with a pile of yards, but at his price tag I think it’s a strong way to get exposure to most of the Chargers offense without pigeonholing yourself into a single back or receiver, making him a quarterback you can play naked in GPPs this week. Other pivots to consider at a similar price: Patrick Mahomes-QB-Kansas City Chiefs-$7500 and Kirk Cousins-QB-Minnesota Vikings-$7500

Mid Tier

Royce Freeman-RB-Denver Broncos-$6000: Freeman finished Sunday’s game against the Seahawks with 71 yards on 15 carries, a rushing total matched by rookie backfield mate Phillip Lindsey, who’s drawn plenty of attention after his strong preseason led to an unexpected Week 1 role in the offense. That said, Lindsey isn’t built to be 200 carry back and it’s unlikely we see that kind of usage again soon. After the game even head coach Vance Joseph admitted he rolled with the hot hand in the backfield in Week 1-i.e. Lindsay’s usage wasn’t planned . So what does all this have to do with Freeman and the matchup this week with the Raiders? Well, Devontae Booker is starting to look like an afterthought in Denver and Todd Gurley (20-108) averaged 5.4 yards per carry against the Raiders on Monday night, and tacked on 3 catches for 39 yards and a touchdown. Earlier in the week Brad Evans at Yahoo Sports tweeted:

No Week 1 RB saw more stacked fronts than Royce Freeman. Per NFL NextGen stats he battled 8+ man fronts 66.7% of the time vs. SEA, yet he still bulled his way to 15-71.  

Now Seattle’s run defense isn’t what it once was, but it’s definitely not as bad as the now Khalil Mack-less Raiders squad. Lindsay also popped up on the injury report late in the week with an undisclosed knee issue so expect the Broncos to play it safe with him this early in the season. He won’t sit, but if they’re handling the Raiders the way Vegas believes they will (the Broncos are nearly a touchdown favorite as of Friday afternoon) then there’s no reason to push him. Freeman could easily see 20+ touches against an Oakland team that has looked and sounded borderline dysfunctional just a week into the season. Other pivots to consider at a similar price: Tevin Coleman-RB-Atlanta Falcons-$5900 and Alfred Morris-RB-San Francisco 49ers-$5800

Sammy Watkins-WR-Kansas City Chiefs-$5800: This play isn’t for the faint of heart, but Watkins is the number two wideout in an explosive offense in the game Vegas has projected for the highest overall total on the weekend. So far his chemistry with Mahomes hasn’t looked fantastic, but this is the type of game where Kansas City may very well need him to produce. Word late Friday is that Steelers corner Joe Haden will miss this one, which thins an already weak Steelers secondary that is going to have to contend with Tyreek Hill. You’d have to believe after watching Hill go absolutely nuts on the Chargers last week that the Steelers are going to completely sell out to stop Tyreek the Freak. It could leave Watkins in plenty of one-on-one situations in coverage, and I’m still willing to bet on his talent. Yes, he’s a bit of dart throw, but at his price and with ownership almost certainly in the low single digits, he has some of the highest upside on the entire slate. Other pivots to consider at a similar price: Chris Godwin-WR-Tampa Bay Buccaneers-$6100 and Mike Williams-WR-Los Angeles Chargers-$5400

Low Dollar

Ricky Seals-Jones-TE-Arizona Cardinals-$5200: A hot offseason breakout candidate, Seals-Jones’s 3 catches for 19 yards in Week 1 was disappointing, but heading into a difficult matchup on the road against the Rams in Week 2 there’s at least some reason for optimism. The Cardinals offense looked woeful in a home loss to Washington last week, and Vegas projects the Rams as nearly a two touchdown favorite on Sunday in their home opener. But the one Raiders player that actually had success against the Rams on Monday night was tight end Jared Cook. And while Seals-Jones isn’t quite on his level talent-wise, there are few capable pass catchers for Arizona outside of Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson, and Los Angeles has the talent in the secondary to really cause Fitzgerald problems. What they don’t have is linebacker Mark Barron, who will once again miss this week with an Achilles issue. Hands down the team’s top coverage linebacker, Seals-Jones should be able to find some holes and along with Johnson, give Bradford as much of a safety outlet as he’s going to get. Additionally the Rams pass rush is going to be after Bradford all day so short to intermediate routes are going to be the ticket here, which also sets up well for Seals-Jones in a game were the Cardinals almost certainly trail. Ultimately, he probably makes a better play on DraftKings with the PPR scoring, but at his current FanDuel price there’s some upside here, as he’s in the same range as Jared Cook, who likely winds up being more popular, but is a solid play in his own right. Other pivots to consider at a similar price: Jared Cook-TE-Oakland Raiders-$5000 and Ben Watson-TE-New Orleans Saints $5100

Geronimo Allison-WR-Green Bay Packers-$5000: I talked about Allison on the podcast this week, and I actually think the news that Trae Waynes will play could be to his advantage. One of the biggest knocks on Allison is his lack of deep speed, while Waynes possesses elite speed for an NFL cornerback, and has largely made a living in Minnesota handling lid lifters while Xavier Rhodes shadows number one wideouts. That combination, along with a pair of very good safeties anchors the back end of the Minnesota defense. Allison though is a big bodied receiver who can go up and get the football, and his size-strength advantage on Waynes could make him an attractive target, provided Aaron Rodgers is a full go on Sunday. With Rhodes harassing Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham likely to see plenty of safety Harrison Smith, the ability for Randall Cobb and Allison to exploit their slightly better matchups is going to be the key to Green Bay staying in this football game. Allison’s physical style has the ability to pose a problem for Waynes and Rodgers is the type of quarterback that trusts his receivers to make plays. Note: as I said the other night, without Rodgers you’re going to want no part of the Green Bay offense.

Other pivots to consider at a similar price point: Dante Pettis-WR-San Francisco 49ers

Good luck this week!

The views expressed above are my personal takes on the games and strategies I’ve highlighted and I may sometimes play on the platforms and in the games on which I offer advice. With that in mind, please note that I also may employ different players, tactics, and strategies than what I have recommended here.

 
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