DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 4

28 Sep 2018 - 3:30pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 28 Sep 2018 - 4:23pm | Likes: 10
DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 4

Listed here each week are a “6-pack” of picks, with two high dollar, two mid-level, and two low dollar players to consider for your DFS tournament lineups. Each week I alternate between DraftKings and FanDuel for picks and pricing in order to make sure I’m covering GPP plays for folks playing on both of those sites. Here in Week 4 we’re going to use FanDuel pricing, as we look to unearth some interesting GPP options. The goal is to find players that can return enough value to be tournament viable, while also thinking through where some of the pivots to the more chalky plays will be that week so we get a little differentiation in our lineups. Now that you know the drill, let’s take a look at this week’s picks.

High Dollar

Saquon Barkley-RB-New York Giants-$8000: Barkley will undoubtedly garner some significant ownership this week, but I still expect him to fall well short of guys like Alvin Kamara and Melvin Gordon, and perhaps a few cheaper options as well. In what is projected to be a shootout, the Giants will host a New Orleans Saints offense that has been firing on all cylinders this season. On the flip side the Saints defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone, which is good for this Giants team that has struggled to keep Eli Manning upright. Last week’s win at the Texans was big for the G-Men, but it’s likely going to take a pile of points to keep the Giants in the game on Sunday. With Evan Engram already ruled out and Odell Beckham slated to see a whole lot of Marshon Lattimore coverage, the Giants will need to depend on some combination of Barkley, Sterling Shepard, Cody Latimer, and Rhett Ellison for their offensive production. Barkley may not find a ton of running room against what has been a good Saints defensive front, but given the way this game should play out, he’ll be expected to have a larger than normal role in the passing game. And this is a guy who’s already averaging 9 targets per game on the season. This could be a spot where we see him get peppered with a Christian McCaffrey/Alvin Kamara-type workload as the Giants try to keep pace so he could be an even better play on PPR sites. Other potential pivots: Melvin Gordon-RB-Los Angeles Rams-$8700 and Ezekiel Elliott-RB-Dallas Cowboys-$8200

Tom Brady-QB-New England Patriots-$8600: With so many quarterbacks in premier spots, Brady probably goes a bit overlooked this week-or at least as overlooked as Brady can go. While the Dolphins come into the weekend 3-0 on the season, the early schedule has actually been a rather friendly one, as the three teams (Titans, Jets, and Raiders) they’ve faced so far are a combined 3-6 on the season. Miami has also allowed more than 330 passing yards to both Sam Darnold and Derek Carr in the last two games. Tom Brady is 14-1 against the Dolphins at home in his career, and he’s tossed 4 touchdown passes in each of their last two meetings Foxboro. There’s some talent on the defensive side of the ball for Miami, but there are also some holes in this secondary. On Sunday night the Patriots looked thoroughly out game planned by Matt Patricia and the Lions, a scenario you’d imagine Bill Belichick and company won’t take lightly. It’s clear that they miss Julian Edelman and they’ve got some things to figure out on the defensive side of the football, but this just feels like the kind of spot where Brady and company come out and remind the league who they are. If not, we may be witnessing the beginning of the end, but as we’ve seen in prior seasons, counting the Patriots out in September generally looks downright silly by the holidays. I really like Brady as a quarterback pivot off some of the far chalkier guys this week in tournaments. Other potential pivots: Drew Brees-QB-New Orleans Saints-$8700 and Philip River-QB-Los Angeles Chargers-$7800

Mid Tier

Sony Michel-RB-New England Patriots-$5900: WIth Rex Burkhead landing on IR earlier this week, the options in the New England backfield are growing scarcer by the moment. Heading into Week 4 the Patriots are essentially down to a combo of James White and Sony Michel, with the former the receiving back and the latter likely to shoulder the load in the running game. Fresh off a defeat at Detroit on Sunday night, the Pats come into this one looking to right the ship. In that game Michel and White essentially split the snaps, as they went 52% to 48% in White’s favor, but Michel logged double the touches (15 to 7), and all three of his targets in the passing game came in the red zone. Despite being 3-0 on the season, Miami has allowed the eighth most fantasy points to the running back position this year. On some level you’d have to imagine the current state of affairs in the New England backfield is exactly why the Patriots used a first round pick on Michel this spring, and with that in mind he should be plenty involved in the offense going forward. Still, there’s nothing safe about rolling out a Patriot running back, especially a rookie one, so for me Michel makes a high upside GPP play in game with a Vegas projected total approaching 50. He also seems like the safer of the two backs, as even if New England jumps out to a lead in this one and Brady is slinging it, as I expect (New England is nearly a touchdown favorite heading into the weekend), he would see plenty of work in a clock killing role in the second half. Other potential pivots: Kerryon Johnson-RB-Detroit Lions-$5700

Geronimo Allison-WR-Green Bay Packers-$5900: This call isn’t all that much different than my thoughts on Calvin Ridley as a top play in DFS last week. Hands down Davante Adams is the most dangerous receiving weapon for the Packers, which means he should see a healthy dose of Tre’Davious White, who is quickly establishing himself as one of the best young cover corners in the league. On the other side of the field for the Bills is Phillip Gaines, who inherited the starters job in Buffalo when Vontae Davis called it quits. Last season PFF ranked Gaines 118 out of 121 corners in coverage, as he largely manned the slot for Kansas City. While all signs point to some improvement from Gaines so far this season, he’s by no means reliable and will certainly see plenty of passes come his way. So far Rodgers has shown great trust in Allison on the outside and the matchup here is a good one for him. Allison enters Week 4 leading the Packers in receiving yards (208) and has already visited the end zone twice. While Jimmy Graham also figures into the mix here for targets, slot receiver Randall Cobb has been downright dreadful for Green Bay over the past two weeks and is nursing a hamstring injury so we could see his role diminish. The three headed backfield has done little to this point, although Aaron Jones did provide a bit of spark last week. Regardless, the offense flows through Rodgers here-even with him nursing the knee injury. Expect Allison to be heavily targeted on Sunday and play a larger than normal role in the Green Bay passing attack. Also, when he does score you get to yell, “Geronimo!” Other potential pivots: Sterling Shepard-WR-New York Giants-$6200 and Christian Kirk-WR-Arizona Cardinals-$5400   

Low Dollar

Tyler Eifert-TE-Cincinnati Bengals-$4600: We saw Eifert’s role grow in Week 3, as the big tight end hauled in 6 of his 8 targets for 74 yards. Admittedly, the effort was likely aided by the injury to A.J. Green in the third quarter. But nevertheless, Eifert’s snap percentage has increased in each of the first three weeks, and his 8 targets last week were a season high. While Green is expected to be go a on Sunday, the Bengals visit Atlanta in what Vegas projects to be one of the highest scoring games of the week. Ben Watson dropped a solid 5 catches for 71 yards line for New Orleans in last week’s shoot out, and Eifert should be able to achieve similar production or better, with arguably more red zone upside. They’ve slowly worked him back into the mix after injuries cost him most of the past two seasons, and the fact that his role appears to be growing in the offense is encouraging. Always a premier red zone threat, the situation is ripe for Eifert to excel against Atlanta. Just three weeks into the season the Falcons have lost both of their starting safeties, Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen, to season ending injuries, as well as Pro Bowl linebacker Deion Jones. I expect Dalton and Eifert to work the Falcons over in the middle of the field, and the price tag is as low as we’re likely to see for him this season-at least while he’s still healthy. Other potential pivots: Dallas Goedert-TE-Philadelphia Eagles-$4600 and Luke Wilson-TE-Detroit Lions-$4500

Antonio Callaway-WR-Cleveland Browns-$4500: Last week the Browns logged their first victory in nearly two years. And while the obvious storylines in that game were the play of Baker Mayfield in relief of Tyrod Taylor, along with big nights from Jarvis Landry and Carlos Hyde, don’t overlook the 10 targets for Antonio Callaway. The week before he logged a 3-81-1 stat line with a big touchdown to pull even late in the game. Obviously, in addition to a number of the other things, the rookie’s ability as a deep threat was part of what helped make Josh Gordon expendable. He’s certainly made his fair share of mistakes and committed a few drops against the Jets in Week 3, but the big play ability is evident and he’s going to be a dangerous weapon for Mayfield going forward. This week he faces a Raiders secondary that allowed three touchdowns of more than 30 yards to Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins last week, and has been absolutely abysmal against opposing passing attacks through three weeks. The loss of Khalil Mack has been huge for this defense, as the Raiders have generated little in the way of a pass rush this season, which combined with a subpar group of defensive backs has been a disaster. Callaway is exactly the type of lid lifter that could leverage this matchup into a huge fantasy day, and at the bare minimum on FanDuel he makes an excellent GPP play. Other potential pivots: Cam Meredith-WR-New Orleans Saints-$4900 and Taywan Taylor-WR-Tennessee Titans-$4500

Good luck this week!

 
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