DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 5

5 Oct 2018 - 6:25pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 5 Oct 2018 - 6:40pm | Likes: 17 Like 
DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 5

Listed here each week are a “6-pack” of picks, with two high dollar, two mid-level, and two low dollar players to consider for your DFS tournament lineups. Each week I alternate between DraftKings and FanDuel for picks and pricing in order to make sure I’m covering GPP plays for folks playing on both of those sites. Here in Week 5 we’re going to use DraftKings pricing, as we look to unearth some interesting GPP options. The goal is to find players that can return enough value to be tournament viable, while also thinking through where some of the pivots to the more chalky plays will be that week so we get a little differentiation in our lineups. Now that you know the drill, let’s take a look at this week’s picks.

High Dollar

David Johnson-RB-Arizona Cardinals-$6300: Johnson started the season at nearly a $9000 price tag on DraftKings, and now heading into Week 5 he’s come all the way down to $6300, making him just the 11th most expensive running back on the slate. Through the first 2+ games of the season, Sam Bradford’s ineptitude hamstrung the Arizona offense, rendering Johnson and the rest of the Cardinals skill position players borderline unusable for fantasy. Mercifully, the team has moved on to rookie Josh Rosen, who so far has been a significant upgrade. As with any rookie quarterback there are going to be growing pains, but Rosen’s 180 passing yards last week were more than Bradford managed in any game before an injury in Week 3 forced him to the sideline. In short, Rosen has the ability to at least keep defenses honest, and it does look like Steve Wilks and company have finally realized what the rest of us having been saying since the season opened...getting the ball in David Johnson’s hands as much as possible is a good thing for this offense. Weeks 1-3 Johnson averaged less than 15 touches per game, while in Rosen’s first start last week he had 25. It’s a trend we should expect to continue, as a heavy dose of Johnson should help take some of the pressure off Rosen, and targeting him out of the backfield is a nice way to manufacture some easier and safer completions for the rookie. I think this is as low as we see D.J.’s price tag go this season so I’m a buyer in a spot where the masses are likely to flock to Gordon, Gurley, and McCaffrey. Potential pivots at a similar price: No other RBs in this range

Stefon Diggs ($7000) and Adam Thielen ($7700)-WR-Minnesota Vikings: This is a two-fer this week, as I believe either Vikings wideout is a great place to go in GPPs, depending on what you can make fit from a salary perspective. Both are coming off huge games against the Rams last Thursday night, and the Philly defense doesn’t set up all that much differently than the Rams one they just faced. Both have talented secondaries, but also struggle at times with consistency, and overall rely heavily on the pass rush to help mask some of their issues. Running on the Eagles is basically a non-starter, but we’ve seen Kirk Cousins throw for 1143 yards and 8 scores over the past three weeks, and Thielen and Diggs have gotten the lion’s share of it, with both seeing double digit targets in every game over that span. And lest we forget how badly the Eagles corners have been to start the season, below are some of the wideout statlines they’ve already allowed just a quarter of the way through the season.

  • Week 1 vs ATL: Julio Jones: 10 catches for 169 yards
  • Week 2 @ TB: Mike Evans: 10 catches for 83 yards and 1 TD, DeSean Jackson: 4 catches for 129 yards and 1 TD, Chris Godwin: 5 catches for 56 yards and 1 TD
  • Week 3 @ IND: T.Y. Hilton: 5 catches for 50 yards
  • Week 4 @TEN: Corey Davis: 9 catches for 161 yards and 1 TD, Taywan Taylor: 7 catches for 77 yards  

That’s some pretty significant production allowed to wide receivers in 3 of the first four games. Cousins will be pressured for sure, as the Vikings offensive line is a mess, but he’s shown the ability to hang in and deliver so far this season so there’s no reason to believe that will change here. With Dalvin Cook almost certain to sit, the offense will most certainly flow through Cousins and his top two pass catchers. Potential pivots at a similar price: Juju Smith-Schuster-WR-Pittsburgh Steelers-$7500 and A.J. Green-WR-Cincinnati Bengals-$7200

Mid Tier

Russell Wilson-QB-Seattle Seahawks-$5100: Neither of my mid tier calls will be a surprise to listeners of the podcast. The Rams head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks, and for the first time in many years these franchises truly seem to be headed in opposite directions. That said, Seattle has still shown the ability to stop opposing rushing attacks, and you can never underestimate the impact of playing in Seattle with the 12th man. To me the Vegas projected total and spread are quite interesting here, as even though the Rams are a touchdown favorite as of Friday, Seattle is still projected to score 21+ points on Sunday afternoon. We saw the Rams banged up secondary struggle against the Vikings at times last Thursday and Wilson is far more capable of buying time with his legs than Kirk Cousins. Seattle can’t seem to figure out who they want carrying the ball in their backfield, and at times last season that manifested itself into big Russell Wilson rushing days. Doug Baldwin (more on him later) made it through Week 4 without a setback, and Tyler Lockett was been better than most had predicted in his absence, while Jaron Brown has been a solid complement and second year pro David Moore is threatening to leapfrog Brandon marshall for snaps. With Aqib Talib on the shelf and Marcus Peters playing through a hamstring injury, the only healthy coverage corner is nickelback Nickell Robey-Coleman. I’m not sure Seattle can come away with a win here, but they will need to score to keep pace with the Rams, and with Seattle backed into a corner early in the season the entire offense should flow through Wilson. I believe he could have a huge game here. Potential pivots at a similar price: Derek Carr-QB-Oakland Raiders-$5200

Doug Baldwin-WR-Seattle Seahawks-$5000: Unsurprisingly, Baldwin is the guy I want to stack with Wilson now that we’ve seen him make it through a game without a setback. For Seattle to put up three touchdowns this week, Wilson will almost certainly have to throw the ball 35-40 times, or perhaps even more. Wilson targeted wide receivers on 18 of his 26 attempts last week, and more than a third of them went Baldwin’s way. And that was after more than a month and a half hiatus. His market share is only going to rise. Baldwin also runs largely out of the slot (62.1% last week according to PlayerProfiler.com) and last week Adam Thielen, who posted an 8-135-1 statline against these same Rams, ran the majority of his routes out of the slot as well. Los Angeles slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman has been very good manning the slot this season, but the big Thielen game should give us a measure of confidence in Baldwin, especially because the high powered Rams offense and the game script are likely to necessitate a lot of pass plays for the Seahawks. Potential pivots at a similar price: Quincy Enunwa-WR-New York Jets-$5200 and John Brown-WR-Baltimore Ravens-$5600

Low Dollar

Taywan Taylor-WR-Tennessee Titans-$4000: Corey Davis had a breakout performance last week, shredding the Eagles secondary at home. It’s one of the reasons I think Diggs and Thielen make such good plays this week. But the matchup against Buffalo cover corner Tre’Davious White is what has me visiting the other end of the pricing spectrum with Taylor this week. Davis is an awfully talented receiver, but have we really seen enough from him to trust him against one of the best young cover corners in the league, especially on the road at Buffalo. Vegas doesn’t seem to think this game is the same slam dunk for the Titans that many are projecting, and if that’s the case, there should be a sizable role for Taylor to play here. Even before Rishard Matthews had thrown in the towel on Tennessee, Taylor had seen 4 and 5 targets in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively. Last week he operated as the team’s WR2 and snagged 7 of 9 targets for 77 yards. And while that was a pass heavy game for the Titans, the big takeaway is that he’s going to be a core component of the passing game with Matthews gone and Delanie Walker lost for the season. We’ve also seen him break off big plays since college, and he’s going to draw an ideal matchup against the revolving door of corners the Bills keep lining up opposite White. It will be the path of least resistance here for the Titans passing game, and Taylor could post a nice day at a bargain tag. Potential pivots at a similar price: Mohamed Sanu-WR-Atlanta Falcons-$4000 and Mike WIlliams-WR-Los Angeles Chargers-$4200

Isaiah Crowell-RB-New York Jets-$4100: Crowell was on the wrong side of last week’s running back split in a blowout loss in Jacksonville. But through the first three weeks he and Bilal Powell were essentially splitting the snaps 50-50 in the Jets backfield. I’m inclined to believe last week’s drop off had more to do with game script then any sort of shift in the way the Jets plan to deploy their two backs. Denver visits the Jets this week, and this game basically a push, as the line has bounced back and forth between -1 on both sides since the beginning of the week. We just saw Kareem Hunt maul the Broncos on the ground on Monday night, and over the past two weeks Denver is allowing more than 27 fantasy points per week to the running back position. To be fair, I don’t dislike either one of the Jets backs, but Crowell is the bigger home run threat, better runner between the tackles, and comes with a lower price tag. With Case Keenum looking downright awful so far there’s a good chance the Jets can lean on the running game and keep Darnold from having to drop back too often against the Broncos elite pass rush. I think the back they’ll lean on here is Crowell. Potential pivots at a similar price: Bilal Powell-RB-New York Jets-$4400 and Derrick Henry-RB-Tennessee Titans-$4400

Good luck this week!

 
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