DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 6

12 Oct 2018 - 6:14pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 12 Oct 2018 - 6:27pm | Likes: 8
DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 6

Welcome to the DFS 6-Pack, where every week I provide 6 picks, with two high dollar, two mid-level, and two low-dollar players to consider for your DFS tournament lineups. Each week I alternate between DraftKings and FanDuel for picks and pricing in order to make sure I’m covering GPP plays for folks playing on both of those sites. Here in Week 6 we’re going to use FanDuel pricing, as we look to unearth some interesting GPP options. The goal is to find players that can return enough value to be tournament viable, while also thinking through where some of the pivots to the more chalky plays will be that week so we get a little differentiation in our lineups. Now that you know the deal, away we go!

High Dollar

A.J. Green-WR-Cincinnati Bengals-$8800: This is one of those weeks where we can actually look at A.J. Green as a pivot play in tournaments. Yes, he’ll have ownership, but I don’t think it will begin to approach what we see for Mike Evans or Julio Jones, and he may even come in behind the likes of Antonio Brown, Adam Thielen and perhaps others. On the season the Steelers have been absolutely destroyed through the air, and are one of just four NFL teams to have allowed more than 1000 receiving yards to wide receivers already, and only four teams have allowed more touchdowns to the position than Pittsburgh’s 8 through the first five weeks. And for you MLB DFS players, this is your BVP special of the week as well. In one postseason and six regular season games at home against the Steelers in his career, Green has posted at least one touchdown in all but one game (2013). In 2016 Green sat out the home contest against the Steelers, but including a 2015 playoff game, Green’s last four home contests against the Steelers have been as follows:

 

2017: 7 catches for 77 yards and 2 TDs

2015: 5 catches for 71 yards and 1 TD

2015: 6 catches for 132 yards and 1 TD

2014: 11 catches for 224 yards and 1 TD

Andy Dalton and the Bengals are playing well, and with John Ross likely to sit and the team banged up at the tight end position, Green should see a massive target share against Pittsburgh’s Swiss cheese secondary. Other potential pivots: None (Mike Evans and Julio Jones both make good plays, but will be very highly owned)

Cam Newton-QB-Carolina Panthers-$8400: Cam Newton is generally a good play because the rushing upside gives him solid floor, and if he happens to have one of those days where he’s lighting it up through the air then suddenly you’re in business. For that reason this is one of those weeks where I think getting some Newton makes a whole lot of sense. Carolina travels to Washington to face a Redskins team that just got embarrassed on Monday Night Football by Drew Brees and the Saints. Washington is playing on a short week and is pretty banged up on both sides of the ball. With the Redskins top two running backs listed as questionable for Sunday, the Redskins may wind up leaning heavily on Alex Smith and ultimately pushing the pace of this game more than they might otherwise like. Finally, Newton figures to be relatively low owned by Newton standards this week. The matchup isn’t a bad one, but with owners heavily fixated on the potential shootouts in Atlanta, Cincinnati, and Denver, Newton probably flies under the radar this week. And sub 6% or 7% Newton is the best kind. Other potential pivots: Jared Goff-QB-Los Angeles Rams-$8200 and Matt Ryan-QB-Atlanta Falcons-$8300

Mid Tier

Jordan Howard-RB-Chicago bears-$6200: I talked about Howard on the podcast this week, and for me he’s a guy that I think I’ll wind up being very overweight on versus the field Sunday. Despite Mitchell Trubisky’s explosion against Tampa Bay’s awful secondary before the team’s Week 5 bye, on some levels he’s still got a ways to go as a quarterback. Chicago has one of the best defenses in the league, and against a pesky Miami team that has found ways to win at home this season, a heavy dose of Jordan Howard would seem to be in order. In Week 4 the Bears scored 48 points and Howard was barely involved in the offense, logging a season low 11 touches. But that made sense, as the Bucs have proven to be very beatable through the air this season and Matt Nagy’s game plan targeted that weakness. Assuming Nagy takes the same approach this week a big Jordan Howard game could be in the cards. First, the weather is projected to be a bit ugly in south Florida at game time so that might limit the effectiveness of the passing game and lead to more carries for Howard. But even more importantly, the Dolphins are yielding the fourth most fantasy points per game to the running back position, and have allowed 90 rushing yards or more to opposing running backs in all but one game, including 367 yards over their past three. There’s not much to like in this game from a fantasy perspective, but if you’re willing to believe that Tarik Cohen’s Week 4 role was more about opponent and game script than what we’ll see going forward from Chicago, then $6200 for Howard is just way too cheap. Other potential pivots: Chris Carson-RB-Seattle Seahawks-$6400

Marshawn Lynch-RB-Oakland Raiders-$6500: How can you not like a Marshawn Lynch revenge game...in London!?!? With Oakland and Seattle headed to the other side of the pond, Lynch will suit up against a Seahawks run defense that gave up three scores to Todd Gurley last week at home. On the season Seattle is allowing better than 4.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs, and has been very average at defending the position overall. In all but one game this season opposing running backs have either found the end zone or rushed for more than 100 yards. Heading into last week’s game against the Chargers, Lynch had found the end zone or rushed for 100 yards in each of his first four games. Unfortunately, he was game scripted out of that contest when Los Angeles jumped out to a big early lead. I think this is where the rubber meets the road for both teams, and I’m willing to bet on Beast Mode getting the better of Seattle on the Webley turf. Other potential pivots: Tevin Coleman-RB-Atlanta Falcons-$6300

Low Dollar

David Njoku-TE-Cleveland Browns-$5500: On a weekend where tight end ownership is going to vary widely due to the lack of elite options on the slate, I think you can go about anywhere at this position on Sunday. The only exception will be if O.J. Howard, who practiced in a limited fashion Friday, sits, as Cameron Brate then likely becomes the mega chalk for the week. And for good reason, as Atlanta has struggled against the position all season. That said, I like Njoku’s upside in a good matchup at home against the Chargers. While Los Angeles managed to hold Jared Cook in check last week, they are just one game removed from getting shredded by 49ers tight end George Kittle. In Baker Mayfield’s first two starts Njoku has been targeted a total of 18 times, snagging 11 balls for 121 yards. The only concern is that not one of the 18 targets came inside the red zone, but that’s also not a trend we should expect to continue. With Antonio Callaway struggling and Rashard Higgins expected to miss a couple weeks, Njoku could even see an uptick in his target share. Mayfield clearly trusts the second year tight end, and Njoku’s breakout game seems almost inevitable at this point. I’m willing to roll the dice we get it this week. Other potential pivots: Austin Hooper-TE-Atlanta Falcons-$5600

Keke Coutee-WR-Houston Texans-$5700: Coutee was Pat Mahomes favorite target back at Texas Tech, and after missing the first three weeks with a hamstring injury, we’ve gotten a good sense as to why. Over his first two NFL games, Deshaun Watson has targeted Coutee 22 times, and the rookie slot receiver has hauled in 17 of those for 160 yards and a touchdown. Bills number one corner Tre’Davious White isn’t often deployed in shadow coverage, but he does stay outside for the most part, meaning both DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller will see White at times on Sunday. While that also means both will face off against a revolving cast of corners that they can exploit, it should put Coutee in a good spot as well. So far that Texans have showed absolutely nothing in the running game, and there’s little to suggest that will change even if Lamar Miller returns. At $5700 on FanDuel Coutee is still too cheap and I like him to have a big game here. Other potential pivots: Mohamed Sanu-WR-Atlanta Falcons and Quincy Enunwa-WR-New York Jets-$5800

Good luck this week!

The views expressed above are my personal takes on the games and strategies I’ve highlighted and I may sometimes play on the platforms and in the games on which I offer advice. With that in mind, please note that I also may employ different players, tactics, and strategies than what I have recommended here.

 

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