DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 7

19 Oct 2018 - 4:39pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 23 Oct 2018 - 7:09pm | Likes: 17 Like 
DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 7

 

Welcome to the DFS 6-Pack, where every week I provide 6 picks, with two high dollar, two mid-level, and two low-dollar players to consider for your DFS tournament lineups. I alternate weekly between DraftKings and FanDuel for picks and pricing in order to make sure I’m covering GPP plays for folks playing on both of those sites. Here in Week 7 we’re going to use DraftKings pricing, as we look to unearth some interesting GPP options. The goal is to find players that can return enough value to be tournament viable, while also thinking through where some of the pivots to the more chalky plays will be that week so we get a little differentiation in our lineups. Now that you know the deal, let’s get after it!

 

High Dollar

 

Carson Wentz-QB-Philadelphia Eagles-$6000: Philadelphia is down to essentially a banged up Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood at the running back position, but the good news for the Eagles is that Carson Wentz has mostly looked like Carson Wentz since returning, and the receiving corps has been getting a bit healthier as well. This week the Eagles host a Carolina Panthers team that’s been getting rolled by anyone with a semblance of a pass offense so far this season. Last week Washington jumped all over the Panthers 17-0 early on with Alex Smith throwing two touchdown passes in the first quarter, and then deployed a lot of Adrian Peterson as they hung on for the win. Week 6 marked the fourth straight game that the Panthers yielded at least two passing scores, and the only quarterback who didn’t throw for at least two touchdowns against this defense on the season is Dak Prescott in Week 1. Further cementing Wentz as a play is the fact that he doesn’t project to be highly owned at all, and lining up across from Cam Newton, probably isn’t even the highest owned GPP quarterback in this game. Vegas projects this game for a 45.5 total, which seems on the low side given that the Panthers have surrendered at least 21 points in four straight games, and are giving up 26.5 points per game on average over that stretch. Both Andy Dalton, before Carolina’s Week 4 bye, and Eli Manning coming out of it in Week 5, tuned the Carolina secondary up for 300+ yards and multiple scores. Wentz has at least 300 yards passing in two of his last three games and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in all three. I expect him to reach both marks this week against a shaky Carolina secondary. Other potential pivots: Tom Brady-QB-New England Patriots-$6100

 

Mike Evans-WR-Tampa Bay Buccaneers-$7700: Listeners of the podcast know that I’m a big believer in rolling out studs the week after the disappoint in what looks like a good situation. Last week Evans dropped a mediocre 4 catches for 58 yards line on the Falcons in a game where Jameis Winston threw for 395 yards and 4 touchdowns. Desean Jackson and Chris Godwin both saw 9 targets in that game, while Evans finished third among the wideouts with just 5. I don’t expect that will happen again this week, and as of Friday afternoon, the Bucs have the second highest Vegas projected point total on the main slate. The Browns have allowed some pretty big games to wideouts this season, including at least 89 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns to each of Amari Cooper, Michael Thomas, and Tyrell Williams in three of the past four games. I think Evans can be that guy for the Bucs this week and he should get fed this week. Other potential pivots: Stefon Diggs-WR-Minnesota-$7200 and Brandin Cooks-WR-Los Angeles Rams-$7100

 

Mid-Level

 

LeSean McCoy-RB-Buffalo Bills-$5600: We talked on the podcast this week about how successful the Bills have been at turning games ugly against average to mediocre offenses. And in the last two weeks Tennessee and Houston have proven that out. For all their warts on offense, the Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in rush defense and 7th in pass defense according to Football Outsiders DVOA metric. That’s pretty damn impressive for a 2-4 football team that surrendered 47 and 31 points in Weeks 1 and 2 respectively. It also makes clear the fact that it’s Buffalo offense, not defense, that’s to blame so far this season. An inability to move the football and costly turnovers have been the achilles heel for this team over the past four week, not the defense. With Josh Allen facing a multi-week injury, the Bills seem to have finally given up on Nathan Peterman and will go with recently signed veteran Derek Anderson. That should result in a healthy dose of LeSean McCoy this week. Anderson might also be the most capable quarterback on this roster, as he was a solid backup in Carolina for years and a league average quarterback for a handful of seasons in Cleveland before that. The hope is that he won’t make the mistakes we’ve been seeing from Allen and Peterman, and should at least be able to keep the Colts from teeing off on McCoy. Between the defense and Anderson, Buffalo should be able to hang with the Colts, and that all but guarantees 20+ touches for McCoy. While Indy has only has actually been rather solid against opposing rushing attacks, only Atlanta, Kansas City, and Miami have allowed more receiving yards to running backs. I like Shady to go for at least 100+ combined yards and a score this week. Other potential pivots: None in this range

 

Kenyan Drake-RB-Miami Dolphins-$4900: I talked about my affinity for Frank Gore on the podcast this week, but the more I dug into this game, the more I started to like Kenyan Drake. When Adam Gase went back to him after the fumble at the goal line in overtime last week, Gase showed his willingness to stick with Drake through mistakes, which is encouraging. This week Miami faces one of the league’s worst run defenses when Detroit visits the Dolphins. While both Gore and Drake will get there touches here, it’s Drake’s home run hitting ability that makes him slightly more intriguing. The Lions have already yielded three rushing touchdowns of 35 yards or more, and two of those have been from 60+. Drake has that ability, as three of his six scores on the ground since coming into the league have come from 40+ yards. I would not be at all surprising to see him break off a big one in this game on the way to a nice afternoon. Other potential pivots: Latavius Murray-RB-Minnesota Vikings-$5000 and Carlos Hyde-RB-Cleveland-$4700

 

Low Dollar

 

Chris Herndon-TE-New York Jets-$2600: This is pure punt play territory in a week where outside of Zach Ertz and maybe David Njoku, there simply isn’t much safety at the tight end position. Herndon has been seeing more snaps than the other Jets tight ends of late, and last week he managed to turn 2 targets into 56 yards and a score. With Quincy Enunwa and Terrelle Pryor both unlikely to suit up this week, the Jets receiving corps has been hit hard. We may see more of Jermaine Kearse in the slot with Enunwa out, but without Pryor he may be forced back outside. That could leave Herndon in a good spot as the safety blanket underneath against Minnesota. And it doesn’t hurt that the Vikings have been getting smashed by tight ends all year as well. On the season they’ve given up the sixth most fantasy points to the position and have allowed 90 receiving yards or more to the tight end position in four of six games. You don’t need much at Herndon’s price tag. Other potential options: Nick O’Leary-TE-Miami Dolphins-$2600

 

Duke Johnson Jr.-RB-Cleveland Browns-$4000: Johnson was second on the Browns in catches last week with 4 for 73 yards in a blowout loss to the Chargers. This week Cleveland takes on a Tampa Bay defense that hasn’t stopped a single offense this season, and is in the bottom five in the league in fantasy points per game allowed to the running back position. That includes a 31 catches for 333 yards and 3 touchdowns to running backs through the air in just five games. With the Cleveland receiving corps decimated by injury, Johnson should be in line for targets out of the slot, as well as out of the backfield. And the cherry on top is Carlos Hyde getting shipped out of town on Friday afternoon. Nick Chubb is still a work in progress to a certain extent as a receiver, and in a game that projects to be a track meet, these offense are going to spend plenty of time going up and down the field through the air. DJ should be a big part of that for the Browns. Other potential pivots: Peyton Barber-RB-Tampa Bay Buccaneers-$3800     

 

Good luck this week!

 

The views expressed above are my personal takes on the games and strategies I’ve highlighted and I may sometimes play on the platforms and in the games on which I offer advice. With that in mind, please note that I also may employ different players, tactics, and strategies than what I have recommended here.

 

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