DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 8

26 Oct 2018 - 3:09pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 26 Oct 2018 - 3:27pm | Likes: 21 Like 
DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 8

Welcome to the DFS 6-Pack, where every week I provide 6 picks, with two high dollar, two mid-level, and two low-dollar players to consider for your DFS tournament lineups. I alternate weekly between DraftKings and FanDuel for picks and pricing in order to make sure I’m covering GPP plays for folks playing on both of those sites. Here in Week 7 we’re going to use DraftKings pricing, as we look to unearth some interesting GPP options. The goal is to find players that can return enough value to be tournament viable, while also thinking through where some of the pivots to the more chalky plays will be that week so we get a little differentiation in our lineups. Now that you know the deal, let’s get after it!

High Dollar

Davante Adams-WR-Green Bay Packers-$7900: I’m not sure we should call Adams a low-owned play this week, but with such a heavy focus on A.J. Green and Antonio Brown, as well as the Rams wideouts with Cooper Kupp ruled out, Adams is probably lower owned than he should be on this slate. While Vegas is now projecting the Rams as a 10 point favorite at home against the Packers, the high total (57) still puts the team’s projected output at nearly 24 points. It’s hard to envision that sort of offensive effort from Green Bay without a big day from Adams. In recent weeks one of the more underreported stories surrounding the undefeated Rams has been the poor play of the Los Angeles secondary. Adams probably draws Marcus Peters in coverage for most of the afternoon, and since Aqib Talib went down with injury, Peters has been getting beaten on the regular, falling all the way down to 100th in the Pro Football Focus rankings of NFL cover corners heading into Week 8. And overall the Rams secondary has allowed a quarterback passer rating of 100.00 or better to opposing QBs in four of their last five games. Adams started the season with a three game touchdown streak, but failed to reach 100 yards receiving in any of Green Bay’s first four games. As Aaron Rodgers has gotten healthier playing through his Week 1 knee injury, Adams has caught fire over the last three games, averaging 14 targets, 9 receptions, and more than 117 yards and a TD. He’s also scored at least one touchdown in five of the Packers first six games. Considering his price, potential, and projected ownership, Adams just might wind up my favorite wide receiver play of the weekend. Other potential options: JuJu Smith-Schuster-WR-Pittsburgh Steelers-$7400

Tyler Boyd-WR-Cincinnati Bengals-$6700: Coming off a two touchdown game against the Steelers in Week 6, Boyd was considered a fantastic play against Kansas City last week in a game that was expected to shoot out. Instead, the Bengals got rolled and Boyd posted just 3 catches for 27 yards. Because the game wasn’t on the main slate last week, recency bias probably doesn’t drive his ownership down as much as it would have, but his game log still looks a bit erratic and his price jumped to $6700 (previously $6000) on DraftKings after he posted that Week 7 dud. Teammate A.J. Green likely winds up with the highest wide receiver ownership of the weekend against a porous Tampa Bay secondary, which could mean Boyd goes a bit overlooked. The biggest difference between last week and this week is Boyd’s individual matchup. While both Kansas City and Tampa Bay have been atrocious in coverage this season, slot corner Kendall Fuller is by far the strength of the Chiefs secondary. For the Bucs it’s quite the opposite. Slot corner M.J. Stewart has been slightly better of late, but overall receivers running out of the slot are still having their way with the Buccaneers secondary, and Boyd should be no different. With John Ross likely to sit, the target concentration in the passing game should become even more focused this week for Cincinnati. Given that only two quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield last week and Cam Newton in Week 3 when the Panthers ran for a combined 230 yards) have failed to throw for at least 334 yards against Tampa Bay, and the secondary has allowed 11 touchdowns to wideouts (tied for second worst overall and the most per game at more than 1.8 with New Orleans) Boyd could easily outproduce Green...and at a significant discount. Other potential pivots: Emmanuel Sanders-WR-Denver Broncos-$6500 and T.Y. Hilton-WR-Indianapolis Colts-$6300

Mid Tier

Tarik Cohen-RB-Chicago Bears-$5800: Since his breakout game in Week 4 against Tampa Bay, in which he posted 33.4 DraftKings points, Cohen has seen his salary rise from $4100 to a high of $5800 this week. It’s probably still too cheap for the way Matt Nagy and the Chicago offense is utilizing Cohen’s unique skill set. While Cohen has seen just 5 and 6 carries over the past two weeks respectively, he’s being moved around the offense and is often running out of the slot as a receiver. The result has been an average of 11 targets over the past two games, to go along with the handful of carries. And the results have been even better, with 24.1 DK points against the Dolphins in Week 6 and 22.3 against the Patriots in Week 7. Though neither of those opponents have proven to be defensive stalwarts this season, neither have this week’s opponent, the New York Jets. Despite some talented young players, the Jets are still very much a work in progress. Over their past five games New York has allowed 25 or more fantasy points to the running back position four times. It’s a trend we should expect to continue here, as despite his running back designation, Cohen is being deployed in a similar fashion to the way Nagy used Tyreek Hill early in his career. With Jordan Howard largely relegated to the bench, and the Bears offense looking like the exact opposite of last year’s monotonous and slow ground and pound approach, Cohen’s outlook is bright for this week and the rest of the season. Other potential pivots: Marlon Mack-RB-Indianapolis Colts-$5400 and Phillip Lindsay-RB-Denver Broncos-$5200

Jameis Winston-QB-Tampa Bay Buccaneers-$6000: Since taking over as the starting quarterback for the Bucs in Week 6, Winston’s two game totals are as follows: 62 completions on 93 pass attempts for 760 yards, 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s added another 84 yards on the ground via 15 carries, and has found the end zone once and lost one fumble. That’s a two game average of 54 plays with the ball in his hands. And it’s not exactly a mystery why. The Bucs defense stinks to high heaven, and virtually no lead is safe with even a competent NFL quarterback targeting the Tampa Bay secondary. That means Winston and the offense need to keep their foot on the gas on offense, and to date the Bucs have shown next to nothing in the running game. While last week’s matchup against Cleveland featured the number one DVOA defense against the pass according to Football Outsiders, this week’s opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, are ranked 24th in DVOA against the pass. And those numbers are due in large part to allowing four of the seven quarterbacks they’ve faced this season to throw for 300+ yards and multiple scores. Even in what I Vegas suggests will be a losing effort this week, there’s a strong possibility Winston becomes the fifth. Other potential pivots: Russell Wilson-QB-Seattle Seahawks-$5900

Low Dollar

Jeff Heuerman-TE-Denver Broncos-$2600: A full on punt play at tight end, Heuerman is a guy that can help you get to plays like Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley at the running back position this week. And the reasoning has far more to do with the matchup than Heuerman’s role in the Denver offense. In fact, Heuerman has just 5 catches for 41 yards over his past three games, including 0 catches on 0 targets last week, though he did have a scoring catch called back by penalty because he pushed off. Still, Heuerman has been playing 75% or more of the snaps each week since Jake Butt was lost for the season, and faces a Kansas City team he posted 4 catches for 57 yards on 7 targets against in Week 4. On season, Kansas City looks as follows versus the tight end position:

Week

Opponent

Receptions

Yards

Touchdowns

1

LAC

4

37

0

2

PIT

8

164

1

3

SF

6

86

0

4

DEN

5

74

0

5

JAX

10

92

0

6

NE

3

97

0

7

CIN

2

13

1

Season

Average

5.4

80.4

0.3

Even if Heuerman can manage to approach the average tight end output against the Chiefs this season, you’re in business at his $2600 price tag. Other potential pivots: Chris Herndon-TE-New York Jets-$2800

Martavis Bryant-WR-Oakland Raiders-$3700: There’s nothing safe about the Raiders offense these days, but With Amari Cooper off to Dallas, Bryant is expected to take over as the starter opposite Jordy Nelson for Oakland. While inconsistency and off-the-field issues have marred his NFL career to this point, there’s no disputing that he can be an explosive wideout and playmaker, a dangerous combination against a struggling Indianapolis secondary. While the Colts looked good early on in the season against opposing passing attacks, they’ve been flat out torched of late by wide receivers. I’m not inclined to put much stock in last week’s game against a toothless Buffalo offense run by Derek Anderson and missing LeSean McCoy, which is why skipping over that game to look at the previous three contests makes sense. In the weeks prior to taking on Buffalo, the Indianapolis defense had come back down to earth in a big way, allowing 61 receptions for 715 yards and 5 touchdowns to wideouts in just three games. That’s an average of 20 catches for 238 yards and 1.67 scores per contest to the position. With Andrew Luck likely to carve up a bad Oakland secondary on the other side, the Raiders and Derek Carr will have to keep pace to stay in this game. Against a very beatable secondary, Martavis Bryant should figure into that effort and makes a nice GPP target at his price on DraftKings. Other potential pivots: Courtland Sutton-WR-Denver Broncos-$3900

Good luck this week!

The views expressed above are my personal takes on the games and strategies I’ve highlighted and I may sometimes play on the platforms and in the games on which I offer advice. With that in mind, please note that I also may employ different players, tactics, and strategies than what I have recommended here.

 
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