DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 9

2 Nov 2018 - 11:52pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 3 Nov 2018 - 12:54am | Likes: 34 Like 
DFS Tournament 6-Pack: Week 9

Welcome to the DFS 6-Pack, where every week I provide 6 picks, with two high dollar, two mid-level, and two low-dollar players to consider for your DFS tournament lineups. I alternate weekly between DraftKings and FanDuel for picks and pricing in order to make sure I’m covering GPP plays for folks playing on both of those sites. Here in Week 7 we’re going to use FanDuel pricing, as we look to unearth some solid GPP options. The goal is to find players that can return enough value to be tournament viable, while also thinking through where some of the pivots to the more chalky plays will be so we get a little differentiation in our lineups. Now that you know the deal, let’s get after it!

High Dollar

Jared Goff-Los Angeles Rams-$8400: Goff is by no means under the radar, but given some of the other quarterbacks expected to be playing in shootouts this week there’s a chance he doesn’t even land in the top five in ownership. Even if he does, there are likely to be at least three or four quarterbacks ahead of him. According to Football Outsiders DVOA metric, the Saints come into Week 9 ranked 2nd among NFL defenses at defending the run, while at the same time they’ve been regularly dismantled by the pass, ranked 29th. The trade for Giants corner Eli Apple ahead of the deadline may help, but he was inconsistent in his time in New York, and gelling with a new secondary mid-season is likely to take a few weeks. Goff also gets slot receiver Cooper Kupp back after a two week absence and this offense heads into the Superdome at full strength. But also important here is how we should think about Todd Gurley in considering Goff this week. One of the challenges with Goff all season has been the prolific touchdown pace for Gurley, who has 11 rushing scores through 8 games to go along with his 4 receiving touchdowns. But going up against a very good Saints run defense it could be hard to get much of anything going on the ground. That said, included in New Orleans poor numbers against the pass are struggles with opposing running backs as receivers. Football Outsiders position-specific DVOA numbers against pass catchers ranks New Orleans 30th in the NFL or 27.2% worse than league average. That means Gurley’s production this week is far more likely to come through the air via throws from Goff. In a road game against Drew Brees the Rams will need to keep their foot on the gas all afternoon, even if they’re ahead, meaning Goff could easily be the top scoring quarterback of week when all is said and done. Other potential pivots: Drew Brees-QB-New Orleans Saints-$8400 and Kirk Cousins-QB-Minnesota Vikings-$8300

Travis Kelce-TE-Kansas City Chiefs: While every week this post is about figuring out sound pivots to get you away from the chalkier plays, sometimes the chalkier plays just make too much sense. With Zach Ertz on a bye and Gronk and Jimmy Graham playing on Sunday night, I have every confidence that Kelce is going to be uber popular. That said, there are some massive Vegas projected point totals on this slate, and when loading up on those games the first inclination of most folks when dollars get tight is to punt the tight end position. And it could drive down ownership to the point where we don’t see anyone with a crazy high number on the main slate-sub 20%, or maybe even closer to 15% once folks start building lineups. Tight end has largely been a wasteland this season and Kelce provides a measure of safety that no other tight end on this slate can. So this week many of my lineups will take one of two approaches: 1) Jam in Kelce wherever possible, or 2) Completely punt the position with bargain basement dart throws like Jordan Thomas, Mike Gesicki, and Ed Dickson to name a few. Other potential pivots: None


DeSean Jackson-WR-Tampa Bay Buccaneers-$6600: Jackson presently leads the NFL in yards per reception at 22.8 among qualifying receivers. And a big part of that number was a hot start with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center to open the season. In recent week Chris Godwin has been cutting into Jackson’s snaps significantly, and they’re two players headed in different directions career-wise to be sure. But as we saw early on, Jackson still has some juice left in those legs and can still get over the top on defense for big plays. Godwin has benefitted of late from being a better match for the now benched Jameis Winston’s skill set. While Jackson can track the deep ball and is dangerous in the open field, Winston has long struggled with accuracy, and Goodwin is simply better at corralling inaccurate throws with his natural ball skills. Jackson has three 100 yard receiving games on the season, and two of the three came with Fitzpatrick under center. Of his four touchdowns on the season, Fitzmagic tossed three. Carolina’s defense isn’t a pushover, but Vegas is projecting a total for this game in the mid-50s, and the Panthers are favored by less than a touchdown. The defense is significantly better against the run than it is the pass, and is particularly susceptible to longer scoring plays, allowing touchdown passes of 22 or more yards in four of the past five games. I like Jackson to get one here. Other potential pivots: Devin Funchess-WR-Carolina Panthers-$6400 and Cooper Kupp-WR-Los Angeles Rams-$6800

Latavius Murray-RB-Minnesota Vikings-$6700: Not part of the trio of games Vegas projects to climb into the 50+ total points range, Murray could go a bit overlooked this week. He’s found the end zone 4 times in the past three games and even managed to put up a good day against a very good Saints run defense last week with 13 carries for 56 yards and a touchdown, as well as 5 catches for 39 yards. With Dalvin Cook slated to play 15 or so snaps this week, ownership could take a further hit from wary players who don’t want the risk. But that’s what tournaments are all about. On the season the Lions have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to the running back position, having surrendered 100+ rushing yards to Isaiah Crowell in Week 1, Matt Breida in Week 2, Ezekiel Elliott in Week 4, and Chris Carson in Week 8, as well as 101 rushing yards to the combo of Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore on just 16 carries in Week 7. That’s five of seven games, as only the Packers and Patriots failed to get there. I expect Murray to get it done this week as the Vikings look to get back on track against a division foe. Other potential pivots: Nick Chubb-RB-Cleveland Browns-$6600 and Lamar Miller-RB-Houston Texans-$6500

Low Dollar

D.J. Moore-WR-Carolina-$5300: Don’t get me wrong, I get the attraction of Courtland Sutton becoming a starter in Denver, but Moore might come in at a quarter of the ownership and there’s no debating the tastiness of his matchup. Moore has seen his snap count jump with Torrey Smith out, and all signs point to Smith sitting again this week. Moore has seen 5, 5, and 6 targets respectively the last three weeks, and is a big play waiting to happen. He turned last week’s 6 targets into 5 catches for 90 yards, and the fact that Carolina gave him the ball on two designed runs as well speaks to the fact that they know they need to him to be a playmaker in the second half of the season. As for the matchup, he’s a wide receiver playing against Tampa Bay. The Bucs trail only New Orleans in fantasy points allowed to the wide receiver position, while Football Outsiders ranks Tampa Bay dead last in DVOA against the pass. He’s way too cheap and this should be his breakout week and your last chance to buy low. Other potential pivots: Tre’Quan Smith-WR-New Orleans-$5100

Isaiah Crowell-RB-New York Jets-$5700: With Bilal Powell lost for the season Powell is atop the depth chart for New York, though second year back Elijah McGuire was activated from IR this week. Still, he’ll be worked back into the mix slowly after returning from a broken foot, and Crowell should easily lead the Jets backfield in touches again this week. The matchup against Miami is as good as it gets, and the setup is eerily similar to a few weeks ago when I wrote up Crowell here and he set a franchise record with 219 rushing yards and a touchdown against Denver on just 15 carries. The Dolphins run defense has been hemorrhaging for weeks now and we know Crowell is always a home run threat. Over the past four games the Dolphins have surrender an average of 6.2 yards per carry to opponents’ primary ball carriers (453 yards on just 73 carries). The Jets receiving corps continues to struggle with injuries and New York could really use a big game out of Crowell here. In the last three weeks he was game scripted out of a shootout in Indy and then faced the Vikings and Bears, all of which has sunk both his stock and his price. This is a game most won’t look to on this slate, and the price tag couldn’t be better. Other potential pivots: Ito Smith-RB-Atlanta Falcons-$5600     

Good luck this week!

The views expressed above are my personal takes on the games and strategies I’ve highlighted and I may sometimes play on the platforms and in the games on which I offer advice. With that in mind, please note that I also may employ different players, tactics, and strategies than what I have recommended here.


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