Divisional Weekend-DFS Breakdown

13 Jan 2018 - 1:22am | Roto Coach | Updated: 13 Jan 2018 - 10:29am | Likes: 0 Like 
Divisional Weekend-DFS Breakdown

Saturday

 

Atlanta @ Philadelphia

PHI: +3.0  O/U: 41.5

Quarterbacks: Of the four home teams this weekend only the Eagles are underdogs according to Vegas, and it’s a direct result of the player under center for the NFC’s number one seed: Nick Foles. Foles and Eagles are actually making history with their underdog designation, as this is the first time in NFL history that a #1 seed has been a home underdog in their first playoff game. And boy does this team miss Carson Wentz. After an awful Week 16 performance against the Raiders, Foles played just a few series in a Week 17 loss to the Cowboys, with Doug Pederson opting to rest his now starting signal caller and other skill position players to avoid any further injuries. The silver lining is that we did see a good performance out of Foles in his first start after Wentz tore his ACL. But the overarching concern is that the team he played so well against was the Giants, who were mediocre on defense through the first half of the season, but a downright trainwreck as the injuries piled up, the head coach was fired, and the team had nothing left to play for. With Foles struggling the following week against an equally, or arguably worse, Raiders secondary, expectations aren’t high for him on Saturday. Look, he can certainly surprise in this spot, as we know he’s been prone to streaky play since coming into the league. The highs are high with him, but when the bottom falls out it gets ugly in a hurry. And unfortunately for Philly, the draw is a Falcons team that has been playing fantastic football over the past couple months. After a rocky start to the season Atlanta has really come on, winning road games at Seattle, Tampa Bay, and last week’s Wild Card game in Los Angeles. In fact, since Week 10 this team is 7-2 with the only losses coming to the NFC’s number two seed, the Minnesota Vikings, and on the road at New Orleans in Week 16. This defense has also held the Panthers and the Rams to 10 and 13 points respectively over the past two weeks, and looks as good as they have all season. It’s hard to envision Foles as anything more than a contrarian dart throw, especially given that the discount for rostering him isn’t that significant on most sites. On the other side of the ball, the strong play of Atlanta’s defense has minimized the need for Matt Ryan to carry this team. Without a multi-touchdown game since Week 11 at Seattle, and just two 300 yard passing performances in his last 9 games, the numbers certainly don’t support Ryan as a strong play. That said, the best means of attacking this Philadelphia defense is through the air, which makes the only question whether or not Nick Foles can put enough points on the board to make Atlanta open it up. A glance at the Vegas projected total, the second lowest on the slate at 41.5, suggests Vegas thinks he won’t get it done. That makes Ryan tough to roster unless you believe strongly that this game script plays out differently. That’s probably not a stance I’m willing to take, especially because I think Ryan-Julio stacks could be more popular than they should be.

Running Back: For Atlanta the workload for Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman is pretty consistently turning into a 60-40 split, and we saw that play out against Los Angeles in the Wild Card round. It was the reason I favored Coleman as the play over Freeman at their prices last week, and Coleman did wind up the slightly better point per dollar play on PPR sites, even with Freeman getting the touchdown. But now the prices have adjusted, with Freeman coming down and Coleman getting a slight bump up. On DraftKings for instance, the delta between the two has closed from $2200 last week to just $1500 this week, pricing I think is spot on for both players given what we’re seeing from this offense. While the Eagles field one of the NFL’s top run defenses, both players are involved enough in the passing game to realize an upside. Once again I give Coleman a slight edge here at the lower price point because of what it allows you to do with the rest of your roster, but I don’t mind either one as a play this week. For the Eagles there have been numerous reports about Jay Ajayi’s knee giving him trouble in recent weeks, but Philadelphia’s idea of ramping up his workload in the last month of the season was still only netting him 14-16 touches per game. That should continue here, as he’s the most likely candidate to lead the backfield in touches, but more importantly, out-targeted Corey Clement 11 to 7 over the final four games. Atlanta’s struggles against running backs in the passing game was well documented this season, but the Falcons defense did manage to come through against the Rams last week, holding Todd Gurley to 4 catches on 10 targets for just 10 total yards. Still, Gurley did roll up 101 yards on the ground on just 14 carries, highlighting the fact that the running back position is a very viable way to attack this defense. Without Wentz we should expect the Eagles to lean heavily on the backs, which should mean Ajayi maintains his recent workload and LeGarrette Blount could see 8-10 carries of his own and is always a threat to find the end zone from short-yardage. Of course, all of this assumes the Eagles can slow this game down and keep it close. Should Philadelphia find itself playing from a deep deficit in the second half, it could certainly turn into a Corey Clement game late, which makes him an interesting deep tournament play if you’re making a bunch of lineups.  

Wide Receiver: Julio Jones came up big in last week’s game, catching 9 of 10 targets for 94 yards and the score that ultimately put the game out of reach. Downfield targets will be harder to come by against a good Eagles pass rush, but I can’t envision the Falcons not continuing to force feed him the football. He has 32 targets over his last three games, all in must-win situations for this team. And with the number of high priced receiver options increasing significantly over last week, it’s likely we’ll even see Julio’s ownership dip a little in large field tournaments. Of the high priced wideouts, he’s one of my favorites. Mohamed Sanu also makes a solid option in the mid-tier this week, as the Eagles biggest struggles in the passing game have come against tight ends and receivers running out of the slot, where Sanu is seeing the bulk of his routes, and where his big 52 yard catch and run came in the fourth quarter last week. He makes a solid play in all formats, and could go somewhat overlooked at a difficult price point with all the other options on this slate. For the Eagles there’s nothing in the way of certainty at the wideout position, but that’s also been the case for most of the season. Alshon Jeffery’s experience with Nick Foles was a tale of two games, as the Eagles WR1 saw 10 targets in Foles’ first game as the starter, catching 4 balls for 49 yards and a score. In game number two he was targeted just twice and finished without a reception. The Eagles have to know they need to use Jeffery more effectively to have a chance at winning this ball game, but assuming they can do so is predicated on Nick Foles’ success as a passer, and that’s a dicey proposition. So far the only receiver that seems to have shown any chemistry with Foles is Nelson Agholor, who saw 9 and 7 targets in Week 15 and Week 16 respectively, catching 11 of them for 94 yards and a score. If I’m playing a Philadelphia wide receiver, this is probably where I’d go.

Tight End: Zach Ertz will likely be the second most popular play at this position after Gronk this week. And with good reason, as he had a career year in 2017 and hasn’t slowed down since the injury to Carson Wentz. In fact, Nick Foles has targeted him 26 times in less than ten full quarters of football this season and totaled he 15 catches for 137 yards and a score in the two games Foles started and finished in Week 15 and 16. Add in the fact that the Falcons have given up some nice fantasy days to good pass catching tight ends this season and you should feel good about plugging him in. On the Falcons side Austin Hooper continues to stay marginally involved in the offense with a handful of targets each week, but there simply aren’t going to be a lot of yards here and if you’re rostering him it should largely be about salary relief and the hope that he can find the end zone.

Defense: Both defenses actually deserve some consideration this week. While the Eagles have been the better unit this season, there’s obviously the concern that Foles could dig them a hole, or at the very least surrender too much good field position over the course of the game. At the same time, if the Eagles are to be successful here they’ll need to move the football on the ground and let their defense do its thing. This game has the smallest spread on the slate and could easily come down to some key defensive plays on either side. As for Atlanta, we just watched them go into Los Angeles and shut down one of the most dangerous offenses in the league this season. No small feat. They’ll stack the box and put some pressure on Foles, looking to make him win this game. I’d expect they’ll wind up significantly higher owned for that exact reason, but remember that this is a team that is playing on the road for a second straight week, after effectively playing must win games through the final stretch of the season. Eventually, that may take its toll.           

 

Tennessee @ New England

 

NE: -13.5  O/U: 47

Quarterback: If you’re buying into the Vegas spread and projected points in this game then I’m not sure how you can play Marcus Mariota here. Sure, the New England pass defense was an absolute train wreck to begin the season, but they seemed to get back on track for the most part as the season wore on. If Tennessee is going to make this a ball game then it’s likely to be in the same fashion they got after the Chiefs at Arrowhead, and by that I mean running the ball with Derrick Henry. Not by knocking Gronk out of the game and having Marcus Mariota throw deflected touchdown passes to himself. There’s certainly always the chance that Mariota could pile up garbage time stats in a blowout, but given the spot some of the other quarterbacks on this slate are in, he wouldn’t make my first ten lineups. On the other side Tom Brady is likely getting back both James White and Chris Hogan for this matchup, while Rex Burkhead’s status remains up in the air. It won’t matter, as those two combined with a healthy Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks, and Danny Amendola should have no troubling moving the football against the Titans subpar pass defense. Remember, this team was torched for 231 yards and 2 touchdowns by Alex Smith in the first half of last week’s game, and Kansas City held 21-3 halftime lead. Unlike Andy Reid, Bill Belichick is who he is because the Patriots don’t take their foot of the gas. If Tom Brady is shredding this defense in the first half the way Smith was, he’s going to throw it more than ten times in the second. He’s going to be the highest owned quarterback on this slate by a wide margin, but there’s also a strong possibility he posts a big enough number that you need him to cash.

Running Back: Derrick Henry is the top option in the Titans offense, and the best way to attack New England is on the ground. We saw last week just how effective Henry can be with a full workload. Statistically speaking, New England isn’t much better against opposing rushing attacks this season than Kansas City’s bottom of the barrell unit so this is undoubtedly the way Tennessee will try to attack on offense. Giving Henry a pile of carries also has the added benefit of keeping Tom Brady and all those offensive weapons on the sideline as well. Ultimately the Pats probably force Tennessee away from the running game, but Henry should still see a solid workload and remains reasonably priced for his role in this offense. On the other side of the football I have far more interest in James White, who looks like he will be active as the pass catching back, than I do in Dion Lewis. We saw the Titans bottle up Kareem Hunt last week, as the run defense is one of this team’s strongest units. That said, Kansas City failed to take advantage of Tennessee’s well documented struggles against running backs in the passing game. And if we’ve learned anything about Brady, Belichick and the Patriots over the years, it’s that this team is more than happy to take the path of least resistance. I expect White to be active in the passing game, but Lewis to only see enough carries to keep the defense honest. I’m also not expecting a high level of success on those totes and with Lewis priced up due to his substantial role down the stretch, the tag, the match-up, and likely a bad game script are enough to make me pivot to the pass catching back in this offense. Based on the reports we’re seeing I’m not inclined to believe Mike Gillislee will be active, and I’m skeptical that we actually see Rex Burkhead play meaningful snaps in this game as well. While both are listed as questionable, Gillislee seems to be trending towards a true game time decision, while Burkhead has been practicing and making progress, but has looked to be less than a hundred percent, which makes his price tag nearly impossible to justify.

Wide Receiver: At this point there’s not a lot of separation among Tennessee’s wideouts when it comes to price, but there seems to be a fairly clear pecking order. Rishard Matthews appears to have finally fallen behind rookie Corey Davis for targets during the final stretch of the season and into the playoffs, making Davis a solid play on any site where he’s priced below the veteran. And while Eric Decker caught the big touchdown last week, that’s not something to go chasing. In fact, Matthews has been fairly adept at finding the end zone himself over the past couple seasons, and heading into the week I rank the receivers Davis, Matthews, and then Decker. The bulk of the defensive attention by New England is likely to be paid to Henry, tight end Delanie Walker, and ensuring Marcus Mariota doesn’t do too much damage with his legs. The more out of hand this game gets, the better the chance one or more of these receivers can make or exceed value. That said, we know the floor is incredibly low for all of them given the lack of consistency and Mariota’s play this season. For New England Chris Hogan returns, but is very reasonably priced in a good matchup, and may very well be my favorite point per dollar receiver for the Patriots this week. As much as Tennessee’s secondary has struggled this year, one thing they have been solid in limiting are big plays from opposing passing attacks. With that in mind, Brandin Cooks feels a little expensive, even in what seems like a fantastic matchup. If you can fit him, he’s probably still relatively safe here, but this doesn’t project as a spot where he’s going to take the top off the defense repeatedly. Now that we’re into the postseason we also need to expect and uptick in usage for Danny Amendola, especially in a game where the expectation is that Brady will throw early and often. Amendola actually provides some solid salary relief and has a penchant for finding the end zone in the playoffs. Since 2014 the veteran receiver has played in 57 regular season games and caught 10 touchdown passes, while at the same time he’s visited the end zone 4 times in just his last 8 playoff games (2014-2016). Given how much Tom Brady spreads the ball around, I think I’d rather take a shot on Hogan or Amendola than pay up for Cooks here.

Tight End: Delanie Walker is a solid pivot off some of the more popular tight ends, but the challenge in rostering him for tournaments is that he just hasn’t shown the upside this season. At 33 years old he found the end zone just 3 times this season and didn’t have a 100 yard receiving game. Last week’s 6 catches for 74 yards is in line with what we’ve come to expect, but that’s not going to get it done in GPPs at his price. The Patriots have also done a good job of limiting tight end production after a rocky start to the season, allowing no touchdown receptions to the position after Week 6, and preventing any tight end from hanging 100 receiving yards on them in a game this season. I think we all expect Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski to be the most popular option at the tight end position this weekend, but that’s not going to be enough to take me off him. The Titans have struggled against upper tier tight ends all season, and caught a huge break last week when Travis Kelce suffered a concussion midway through the second quarter, having already racked up 4 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. Things won’t get any easier this week facing the league’s best tight end. After all, there’s a reason Kelce earned the nickname “Baby Gronk” in fantasy circles during his breakout season a few years ago. Don’t overthink it, just plug him in anywhere your roster construction allows.

Defense: The Titans are nearly two touchdown underdogs on the road at New England so it should go without saying that we want no part of the Tennessee defense. At the same time the Patriots simply aren’t a team defense that routinely posts big fantasy days. On the season they ranked just 25th in turnovers forced with a pedestrian 18 takeaways, scored just one defensive touchdown and managed to sneak inside the top ten in sacks only after posting 10 of their season total 42 in Weeks 16 and 17 against the Bills and Jets. They certainly aren’t a bad play this week, but even as big home favorites they’re far from a slam dunk from a fantasy scoring perspective.

 

Sunday

 

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh

PIT: -7.5  O/U: 41

Quarterback: Were Nick Foles not filling in for Carson Wentz, this game would arguably feature the two most unattractive options at the quarterback position this week. Last time these two teams met Ben Roethlisberger passed for 312 yards, connecting on 33 of 55 attempts. Unfortunately, he also threw a career high five interceptions and no touchdowns, as the Steelers fell 30-9 at home. While Roethlisberger is certainly in the twilight of his career, he’s still a capable NFL quarterback. But this matchup is a brutal one, and a gimpy Antonio Brown really caps any upside Big Ben might have against the elite cover corner tandem of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. On the other side Blake Bortles is under center and is coming off a game in which he ran for more yards (88) than he passed (87). The Jags aren’t likely to have the same level of success in bottling up the Steelers offense as they had against Buffalo last week, but they certainly aren’t going to go away from the strategy of trying to control the clock with the running game and then letting their defense do its thing. We know Blake Bortles can roll up elite garbage time stats with the best of them, but it’s difficult to see the Jacksonville defense getting torched to the point where the Jags are willing or even need to unleash Bortles in a meaningful way.

Running Back: This game features a pretty cut and dry running back situation with Leonard Fournette the focal point of the Jacksonville offense. We’ve see then Jags look to hide Blake Bortles all season, and this game won’t be any different. While the Steelers pass defense has had a rough stretch of late, it’s the running game that is the best way to attack this defense, and that means plenty of Fournette. It’s also worth mentioning that when these two teams met earlier this season, he ran for a career high 181 yards and 2 touchdowns on 28 carries. The Jags should go back to the well here, and Fournette is fairly priced on most sites in this solid spot. On the other side you’ll need to work some salary magic to jam in Le’Veon Bell, who, even at his price is one of the best plays on the slate. If there’s a weakness for the Jacksonville defense it’s defending the running back position, particularly in the running game. Frankly, it wasn’t that surprising to see LeSean McCoy rack up 119 yards on 27 touches at less than a hundred percent last week. Bell should perform similarly, if not better, as Roethlisberger and the Steelers coaching staff may be hesitant to test the Jacksonville secondary too much. That, combined with Antonio Brown’s injury, could mean even more targets than usual for Bell, which raises his already solid floor even higher.

Wide Receiver: As I noted above with Bortles, the only way the Jags wideouts get heavily involved in this game is if the Steelers get up big, and that’s not something I’m counting on. Given the target distribution last week and the slow expected pace of this game, Dede Westbrook is really the only Jacksonville wideout I can envision rostering. While the targets have been inconsistent among the Jags various wideouts, Westbrook has seemed to maintain a steady role in the offense. Additionally, while the Steelers season long numbers against opposing passing attacks look good, they’ve been absolutely torched by wideouts in the second half, giving up big yardage totals to in nearly every game since Week 8, and yielding at least one touchdown pass to a wide receiver in every game since Week 10, and multiple scores in half over the same stretch. On the Steelers side this is as tough a matchup as there is in the league, with Jacksonville’s top rated pass defense bookended by two of the league’s best cover corners. Antonio Brown found his way to 10 catches for 157 yards in the last meeting between these two teams, but it took him 19 targets. And that was a healthy Antonio Brown, with the playoff version battling a calf injury and sickness, and designated a game-time call. A gimpy Brown against the combo of Ramsey and Bouye? No thanks, as he could easily be used as a decoy for most of the game. And the same thing goes for Martavis Bryant on the other side. With Bryant back in the mix, JuJu Smith-Schuster has been free to move back into the slot, which actually improves his chances of success against this secondary. The price tag is tough to stomach, but there’s some merit to rostering JuJu at low ownership against this defense, especially if you think the Steelers are playing games with Brown.

Tight End: Both Marcedes Lewis and Jesse James are punt options at the tight end position this week, but I’m not sure I’ll have any of either one. There’s simply too much upside in guys like Gronk, Ertz, and Rudolph to completely punt the position. If you’re dead set on it I think you could roll the dice on James here, as Jacksonville forces teams to go away from their wideouts, and James has turned in some nice fantasy performances at points this season.

Defense: There’s certainly a case to be made for both defenses here, as they finished first and second in sacks on the season, with the Jags finishing second in turnovers forced and the Steelers firmly inside the top half of teams in that category. At the same time, this could easily be a grind it out, low scoring affair where neither team does much on offense, but the fantasy output is far from ideal. I think I favor the Steelers slightly over Jacksonville, and it basically comes down to a road game for Bortles against a more experienced defense in a playoff atmosphere. He came up big with his legs last week, but I think Pittsburgh will force him to throw the football and I’m not convinced that goes well.  

 

New Orleans @ Minnesota

 

MIN: -5.0  O/U: 46

Quarterback: In Week 1 the Saints made the trek to Minnesota and got carved up by Sam Bradford and company to the tune of 341 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air and 470 yards of total offense. With New Orleans’ early season struggles in the secondary this team found itself falling behind early on, and needing Drew Brees to bail them out. While Brees wasn’t able to bring the team back for a win in Week 1, he did manage to throw for 291 yards and a score. But what we know about this Saints offense four months later is that they want to run the football. That will be a tall order against the league’s fifth ranked rush defense according to DVOA, and unlike last week, Brees will also have his work cut out for him against the league’s fourth ranked pass defense according to the same metric. There’s a reason Vegas projects New Orleans to score less than 20 points in this game, and while I don’t think Brees is a bad play, I’m not going out of my way to roster him. On the other side of the ball Case Keenum makes for an intriguing pay down option at the quarterback position. While the Saints have done a fantastic job against receivers on the outside, Adam Thielen is running plenty of routes out of the slot and could really do some damage here. And remember, it was tight end Greg Olsen and running back Christian McCaffrey that led the Panthers in receiving against the Saints last week, and the Vikings do have legitimate pass catching weapons in Kyle Rudolph and Jerick McKinnon at those same positions.

Running Back: If I’m the Vikings I’m very intrigued by the way Carolina attacked the Saints running backs last week. And with an arguably more talented defense in Minnesota, it would not be surprising at all to see a similar game plan from the Vikings defense. The Saints finished the season with two backs in Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, that each topped 1500 yards from scrimmage. But in the Wild Card round the Panthers held those two to 33 and 35 yards respectively, although Kamara did manage a late touchdown. Still, it was an impressive performance and one that perhaps provides a blueprint for slowing down the Saints running game. With many owners looking to save at running back this week I could see Ingram with higher ownership than Kamara, but if I were going to play one of the New Orleans running backs it would still probably be Ingram. This discount is just too significant, and neither one is in an ideal spot here. On the Vikings side of the ball there’s an opportunity to attack the Saints mediocre run defense with Latavius Murray, who has averaged better than 5 yards per carry and nearly 100 yards per contest over the Vikings last four home games, finding the end zone 6 times in that span. He feels far too cheap at his current price on most sites, given that Minnesota has been content to ground and pound at home this season. On PPR sites Jerick McKinnon is also in play here. The Saints allowed 84 catches for 737 yards and 5 scores to running backs this season, which put them just inside the top half of the league at defending backs in the passing game-hardly ideal. Also remember that this defense is coming off a Wild Card win in which they gave up a huge receiving day to Christian McCaffrey (6-101-1). You could do worse than McKinnon as a second running back or flex play.

Wide Receiver: Xavier Rhodes has been a monster in coverage this season, and he’s likely to follow Michael Thomas all over the field in this matchup, which doesn’t bode well for Thomas’s fantasy prospects, especially at his current price levels after a big Wild Card game and a strong finish to the season. On the other side Ted Ginn Jr. draws a less than ideal match-up with Trae Waynes, who while not the biggest or most talented corner around still is one of the few NFL corners that has the speed to go stride for stride with Ginn, making him equally difficult to roster. While the yards and points will need to come from somewhere for New Orleans, the Minnesota defense is scary enough that I wouldn’t have either in my first five lineups. That said, I could see taking a flyer on Willie Snead, who should work out of the slot and has some upside at the bare minimum with Brandon Coleman ruled out. On the Vikings side I expect Stefon Diggs to see a lot of Marshon Lattimore, which makes Adam Thielen one of my favorite wide receivers on the slate. Thielen and Keenum have had great chemistry all season, and though his numbers weren’t impressive down the stretch, they didn’t need to be, as the Vikings easily steamrolled their last three opponents. That won’t be the case here, and he should once again have a

prominent role in the Minnesota game plan.

Tight End: Josh Hill saw more targets in last week’s game than he had since Week 8. And he rewarded those who trusted him as a punt option at the position by hauling in 3 of his 4 targets for 49 yards and a score. Don’t expect a repeat performance against a Minnesota defense that has given up more than 49 yards receiving to the tight end position just three times since Week 5, which was also the last time they allowed a tight end to score. Kyle Rudolph makes a nice pivot off Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski, who figure to see the bulk of the tight end ownership this weekend. Greg Olsen just went off on this Saints team for an 8-107-1 statline last weekend and I noted last week that the New Orleans numbers against the position are deceiving due to facing a lack of talented pass catchers at the position this season. While Rudolph didn’t post big yardage this season, he has been an integral part of the offense and has just one less red zone target (16) than Adam Thielen (17) on the season, and found the end zone 8 times during the regular season. With the Saints talented coverage unit playing outside, he could see some extra targets in this one and makes for a strong option this weekend.

Defense: Full disclosure, I’m a big believer in the Vikings defense. So as talented and explosive as the New Orleans offense can be, I’m inclined to think Minnesota slows them down considerably this weekend and controls this game from the outset. We know Drew Brees is a much better quarterback at home, and he has the unenviable task of facing one of the league’s best defenses in a building where they lost just one game this season. I’ll take the home team here and pass on a Saints squad that I think will have trouble containing Murray and McKinnon all afternoon.

Good luck this week!

 
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