How to Become More Successful in GPP's

9 Oct 2018 - 10:58am | ttgoben | Updated: 9 Oct 2018 - 11:04am | Likes: 26 Like 

How to Become More Successful in GPP’s

Being a GPP player can be incredibly frustrating and thrilling all wrapped into one. One week you can get dead last place and the next you can be sitting atop the leader board come Sunday afternoon dripping sweat as you root on the players on your team. If you are a GPP player and you are falling below the pay line week in and week out, statistically you’re not alone. In most GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools) roughly the top 20% of entries win money. That means 80% of the entries in the tournament lose. Before you even get started, you’re statistically at a disadvantage. Whether you’re playing in a small or large entry tournament, the odds remain roughly the same. Sure, playing cash games (50/50s, double ups etc.) is the safer play, but the amount of money you can win is limited. If you want to chase that six figure win that you see screenshots of on Twitter, you have to learn how to take calculated risks and be ok with losing more than you win.

As was stated previously, 20% of entries in large field tournaments end up above the pay line. So going in, you have to beat 80% of the field to at least minimally cash in the tournament. But we don’t want to just minimally cash. We want to win that top prize. In order to do that, we have to find a way to separate ourselves from the field and be different. This is where the term “Chalk” comes in. Chalk plays are players that are owned by a high percentage of the field. For example, let’s say that Tom Brady is playing a terrible defense this week at home in a perfect matchup. Everyone in the world knows Tom Brady is good and that he is in a great position to have a good game. Therefore, he is going to be owned by a high percentage of the entries in your GPP. Let’s say the game starts and he is 35% owned in your contest. After the game, he finishes with 300 yards and 3 TDs. Both you and 35% of the field are going to get the same amount of points from that player. That doesn’t give you a very good edge on the field. The difference between sitting at the bottom of the pay line (minimum cash) and at the top is ownership.

Now let’s say you are doing your research and see that Jared Goff also has a good matchup and isn’t getting as much buzz around the industry. Your research shows that he’s playing a defense that is weak against the pass and you see an opportunity to avoid Tom Brady (the chalk). Goff comes in at 5% owned and goes off for 400 yards and 5 TDs. By playing Jared Goff, you are immediately leap frogging 35% of the field. Taking calculated risks to avoid highly owned players can massively pay off. Now, I’m not saying don’t play the chalk plays ever. Playing the chalk is fine if said player performs up to the standard needed to score enough points to win a GPP. So don’t go into building your lineups thinking you can’t ever play chalk. If there is a player that you feel is an obvious play and there is no way that he can fail, then play it. You can get contrarian in other parts of your lineup in order to differentiate yourself from the field.

Let’s go back to the Tom Brady example. Let’s say in this scenario Brady throws for 500 yards and 5 TDs and is the top scoring quarterback on the day. He is on your lineup and you couldn’t be happier. The only problem with this is that 35% of the field also has Tom Brady, netting them the same amount of points you have. This is where the rest of your lineup has to be contrarian. If, going into a slate, you know that one of your players is going to be chalky, you have to differentiate yourself from the field with other positions on your lineup. Avoiding the chalk on one or more other positions by playing a low owned high upside play can catapult you to the top of the leader board.

There is another strategy involved in winning GPPs and it is called stacking. Let’s refer to the Jared Goff example and say that you play him this week. If you are confident that Jared Goff is going to have a good game then that means, by default, that you think one or more of his receivers/tight ends will have a good game as well. By playing both Goff and a few of his receivers, you are getting both the points from Goff’s passing yards and TDs and whichever receivers receiving yards and TDs simultaneously. If your stack hits, you will skyrocket up the leader board bringing you even closer to that elusive GPP win. This doesn’t come without risk though. If Goff lays an egg then most likely his receivers will too, leaving you in a very bad position. Don’t get concerned when this happens because it’s going to happen. It happens to everyone. Just trust your process and you will have weeks where these stacks pay off.

Finally, we have what is called a leverage play. A leverage play involves putting a player in your lineup that is on the same team as a chalk player, but is a different position. Let’s say Tom Brady is 35% owned this week and you personally think he will have a bad game but you also think the Patriots will score a lot of points. These points have to come from somewhere but you don’t want to play Brady. You think that Sony Michel will have a big game and that a great deal of their points will come from him. By playing Michel, you are leveraging the field. If 35% of people in this contest are playing Brady, a large percentage of them will not want to also play a running back from the same team. This is another way to separate yourself from those 35% of entries. The same can be done with Defenses. If a defense is going to be chalk, you can play a player from the team they are playing. Let’s say Baltimore is playing Cleveland and their defense will be owned by 50% of the field. You think that Cleveland scores a ton of points and decide to play Baker Mayfield. Every time he scores a touchdown you are gaining points and 50% of the field is losing points. Think of it as a teeter totter. Every time you go up, the other person goes down.

Winning GPPs is all about taking risks and being different so knowing where to take your shots is of the utmost importance. You have to learn to be content with losing more times than you win; knowing that the big pay day is right around the corner. The best DFS players in the world don’t win every week in GPPs and neither will you. So do your research, find players who you are willing to take risks on, and start counting your money when it hits.

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