DraftKings GPP Plays for Wednesday November 7th, 2018

7 Nov 2018 - 4:25pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 7 Nov 2018 - 5:47pm | Likes: 24 Like 
DraftKings GPP Plays for Wednesday November 7th, 2018

With a massive 10 game NBA slate on the docket for tonight, below is a position by position breakdown to help navigate your GPPs of choice on DraftKings this evening.  

Point Guard

With Russell Westbrook already ruled out, Dennis Schroder figures to be one of the most popular plays of the night. Westbrook missed the Thunder’s first two games of the season and Schroder posted 47.5 DK points over 34 minutes on opening night, but followed it up with a bit of dud against the Clippers two days later with just 21 DK points in 30 minutes. The latter performance is more forgivable due to a healthy dose of Pat Beverley defense and just 2 of 15 shooting from the floor for Schroder. The matchup tonight is considerably better against the Cavs, as the combo of rookie Cameron Sexton and an aging George Hill are hardly imposing. Even with DraftKings pricing him up a bit on the Westbrook news, Schroder is firmly in play at $6900.

If we get word the Kawhi Leonard is out once again then Kyle Lowry becomes a fantastic GPP play at sub-$9000. Lowry and the Raptors have played four games this season without Leonard and in each case Lowry has seen a solid usage bump. Two of those games were against very good defensive teams, particularly on the perimeter, at Milwaukee earlier in the year and the other night at Utah. Milwaukee comes into the evening ranked 2nd in fantasy points allowed to the point guard position, while Utah ranks 4th. In those games Lowry still posted 43 and 47.25 DK points respectively, despite shooting a collective 8 of 23 across the two games. The other two contests sans Leonard were road matchups against the Wizards and Lakers, who rank 7th and 29th respectively in fantasy points allowed to point guards, but more importantly, both teams are top ten in pace this season (2nd and 8th). Lowry’s outputs in those two games? 55.25 and 59.5 DK points respectively. Sacramento has far more in common with Washington and LA, playing at the second fastest pace in the league and falling just below league average in fantasy points allowed to the point guard position. With Kawhi in I want no part of Lowry at this price, but if he’s out then 45 DK points feels like a pretty safe floor and there’s certainly 60 point upside in this matchup.     

As noted above, Sacramento is playing at an ultra-fast pace, and second year point guard De’Aaron Fox is logging an average of 32 minutes per night over the Kings last six games. Over the same stretch he’s averaged over 41 DK points per game, although the average is bolstered a bit by a triple-double night (72.5 DK points) against the Hawks. Still, the six game run includes just one game of less than 32 fantasy points (25.5) and the minutes and production seem to be growing more consistent as this young Sacramento team continues to play at a high level. In short, he’s just too cheap here at $6300.

This is a tournament-only play for tonight, as Rajon Rondo comes off the bench for the Lakers with Lonzo Ball operating as the starting point guard. That said, Luke Walton seems far more comfortable with Rondo on the floor to close out games, and for the most part he’s receiving more minutes in those games that stay close. That includes the first meeting between the Lakers and Timberwolves a couple weeks ago in Minnesota, a game in which Rondo played 32 minutes and dropped a 13-6-8 stat line for 31 DK points. While we all know Rondo can just completely disappear at times, priced down at just $5100, this is the type of range where we want to roll the dice on a player like Rondo because he’s already 7x’d it in 3 of the first seven games. I actually think Lonzo could be somewhat popular so shifting to Rondo in large field GPPs gets you even more leverage if you can stomach the risk.

We have to assume George Hill winds up a high owned punt play tonight after dropping 44 DK points against the Magic on Monday. He’s not likely to garner 32 minutes again in what should be a blowout against the Thunder, nor is he likely to repeat going 10 of 12 from the floor. That said, if he plays minutes in the high 20s then he’s a strong bet to figure out a way to reach value and provides some salary relief.

Shooting Guard

There’s not a ton to love about Denver visiting Memphis, as this game carries the lowest Vegas projected total on the slate. But Gary Harris is way too cheap, even in a bad matchup in what should be a slow paced game. While his ceiling is probably capped at 40-45 DK points, especially in a game like this, he also comes with a built in floor of probably 28-30 DK points. Harris also has one of the better defensive matchups against a Grizzlies team that’s been slightly below average at defending the shooting guard position. Over the past two seasons Harris has also shot over 40% from three, while he’s opened this year shooting below 27% from deep. Regression is coming. In a game that should remain close, his minutes are all but guaranteed and the production should be solid, even if unspectacular.

Tonight is a pace up game for Chicago on the road at New Orleans, which should be a premier spot for Zach LaVine. He presently ranks third in the NBA in usage at 33.1%, behind only Giannis and Westbrook, meaning the two guard is in line for a pile of shots tonight. The price has been rising into a range that’s a little less comfortable, but the upside here is still massive. The only real concern is whether or not the Bulls can manage to keep the game close. As long as they’re in it LaVine has stayed on the floor and gotten his shots, but there have been some blowouts that have seen him fall short of 30 minutes as Chicago has looked to rest their primary scorer. He’s hard not to like if you think the Bulls can keep this game close, you just need to figure out how to fit his salary.

Dennis Schroder also makes for a strong option at the shooting guard position, and the Heat situation is one to monitor with Dwyane Wade out and Goran Dragic questionable. If both sit, then Josh Richardson and Rodney McGruder become far more palatable at their respective prices.

Small Forward

With the Timberwolves-Lakers game projected to threaten a Vegas projected total of 240, Lebron James obviously has to be in the mix at small forward tonight. The last time these two teams met, James dropped a 29-10-8 line with a pair of blocks and steals, good for 62 DK points. It’s a good spot for him at home in what should be a fast paced game. And with the Lakers coming off a blowout loss to Toronto on Sunday in which James played just 28 minutes, he should be fully rested and ready to log heavy minutes.

Also in line for heavy minutes and a huge usage bump without Russell Westbrook, is Paul George. His $9100 price tag is slightly more palatable than James’s, but he also doesn’t have the same upside. Still, his usage balloons to 33.9% in the 122 minutes he’s played without Westbrook on the floor this year, which is actually a few ticks higher than Schroder’s 30.8%. The concern here is the blowout risk, as Cleveland is just so bad that this game could be out of hand mid-way through the third quarter, relegating George to high twenties-low thirties minutes and capping his upside. If you think Cleveland can hang with a Westbrook-less Thunder squad then he makes a nice pivot off Lebron at a discount.    

Since Aaron Gordon has multi-position eligibility and there are no shortage of great power forward plays tonight, he makes for a nice option at small forward at $7000. After letting everyone down on Friday night, Gordon has bounced back with 39.5 and 39.75 DK points in his last two games. Tonight’s matchup against the Pistons should see him square off with Blake Griffin quite a bit. Griffin is having a fantastic season so far on the offensive end, but he’s also playing into the mid-30s in minutes, or even higher most nights. Gordon is the sort of high energy player that is going to make Griffin chase him all night. It’s also worth noting that the last time these two squared off in March, Gordon had 27 points and 13 boards. With Blake missing quite a bit of time the past couple seasons you need to go back to 2016 to find the last meeting before that, with Griffin still playing for the Clippers. In that game Gordon went for 33 points and 7 boards. It’s a small sample size, but Gordon’s arrow is pointing up at the moment and the track record here is encouraging.

Much like Gary Harris, Harrison Barnes finds himself in a less than fantastic matchup in what will probably be a less than fantastic game script. What is working for him though is the price tag. Barnes has now been back in the mix for over a week and is regularly seeing minutes in the low to mid 30s for Dallas. He’s also taken at least 13 shots in every game he’s played so far, but is shooting terribly (36.8%), something that’s unlikely to continue. He’s also managed to make it up with defensive stats and rebounds, as his DK points per game through his first six of the season stand at 27.5. He’s not going to hang around at $5100 forever so take advantage of it now.

Power Forward

It’s impossible to ignore the fact that Anthony Davis is in an absolute smash spot tonight with a premium matchup against the Bulls. While the emergence of rookie Wendell Carter has been nice to see, he’s not exactly an elite defender. And with Bobby Portis and Lauri Markkanen still out, Jabari Parker has been logging a bunch of time at the four, where he’s largely been overmatched. The Bulls are coming off a double-overtime win in New York last night, but we can’t overlook Enes Kanter going for 23 and 24, while Noah Vonleh logged a 10 and 11 double double of his own. As bad as this Bulls team is, Davis could threaten 20 and 10 in the first half. And therein lies the problem. Coming off last night’s overtime game in New York the Bulls got on a plane to New Orleans and will be playing on a back to back. If this game blows out, Davis, who’s been nursing an elbow injury likely gets an early hook. If you’re running multiple lineups I think you have to have some, but even with a great matchup, Davis coming in banged up to start with and concerns that the Bulls can keep the game close means quite a bit of potential risk.  

If the game does blowout, and frankly even if it doesn’t, Nikola Mirotic makes a ton of sense as a pivot to Davis. Mirotic has been killing it of late, which has pushed his price tag all the way up to $8300. But it’s probably well deserved, as he’s working on a five game streak of double-doubles that haven’t seen him post less than 41.5 DK points. But he also hasn’t cracked 50 during the span, and has shot just 25% from deep. I think it all comes together for him tonight and a big one is in store. Mirotic didn’t leave the Bulls under the best of conditions, and this is a big time revenge spot for him so it wouldn’t be surprising if Gentry left him in a little longer than usual, especially with Davis nursing an elbow injury and Randall playing through some foot pain. Mirotic could very easily soak up all the front court usage with the Pelicans nursing a lead tonight.

With Pau Gasol and Rudy Gay ruled out already, LaMarcus Aldridge is likely in line for big minutes tonight against the Heat. With James Johnson still out, the Heat are without an athletic big man capable of dealing with Aldridge’s versatile game, meaning Justise Winslow probably draws the assignment tonight. It’s a matchup that would seem to heavily favor Aldridge, and while Demar DeRozan figures to continue to lead the team in usage, it’s Aldridge who gets the bigger bump with Gay and Gasol off the court. It figures to be a slow game so I’m not sure you can get a monster here, but $7900 Aldridge with those guys sitting is pretty enticing.  

With the injury to Mike Muscala in practice this week and Robert Covington still nursing a back injury, Dario Saric may get a few extra minutes to try to prove he can still play basketball. While Saric has been awful of late, he’s the kind of stretch four that can destroy a $4800 price tag if he can get back on track against the Pacers tonight.

Center

When Andre Drummond and Nikola Vucevic square off tonight in Orlando, I think you can play either guy and feel pretty good about it. Right now Drummond seems to be on one of those hot streaks he tends to go on where he’s gobbling up everything in sight off the glass, but interspersed with the big games like Monday night’s 25 and 24 effort are always some head scratchers, and at $9000, 30 DK points can be a killer. That said, there’s no denying his upside. At the same time, don’t be afraid of going to Vucevic here. Yes, the price is probably a touch higher than we’d like, but Drummond is a better shot blocker than defender, and Vuc is capable of some pretty huge games. In fact he already has a 70+ DK point triple-double on the season. And he’s actually gotten over on Drummond plenty of times in the past. Here are the statlines from their last three head to head meetings:

3/2/18

Vucevic: 22-12-6 with 1 block

Drummond: 10-15-0 with 1 steal

12/17/17

Vucevic: 24-14-7 with 1 steal and 2 blocks

Drummond: 12-6-2 with 1 steal and 2 blocks

4/12/17

Vucevic: 18-1-1 with 2 steals and 2 blocks

Drummond: 9-14-2

I like some low-owned Vucevic tonight quite a bit in tournaments.

Who knows what Jimmy Butler will do from night to night, but whether he plays or not, Karl-Anthony Towns is probably the best point per dollar option at center tonight. With the Lakers and Timberwolves slated for a track meet tonight, KAT should have plenty of opportunity to pile up defensive stats and rebounds, meaning we just need to hope he’s aggressive on the offensive end-always a crapshoot. The Lakers have been giving it up to centers all season, because as good a fantasy option as JaVale McGee can be on a nightly basis, he’s not a particularly good defender. When these teams faced off last month in Minnesota, KAT dropped a massive 25-16-5 line with 4 blocks, a steal, and 3 threes. Even more encouraging is the fact that Butler played in that game and had 32 points of his own on 20 shots. This Minnesota team really should be a lot better than it is.

Wendell Carter Jr. also makes a solid play tonight, as the rookie is unlikely to be impacted by a Pelicans blowout. Sometimes he has trouble keeping his hands to himself, which could obviously limit his minutes, but provided he can keep the fouls under control he should get plenty of run here for a thin Bulls frontcourt and could pile up some nice garbage time stats.

Good luck tonight!

The views expressed above are my personal takes on the games and strategies I’ve highlighted and I may sometimes play on the platforms and in the games on which I offer advice. With that in mind, please note that I also may employ different players, tactics, and strategies than what I have recommended here.

 
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