NBA DFS for DraftKings and FanDuel - Wednesday, November 14th

14 Nov 2018 - 3:45pm | Roto Coach | Updated: 14 Nov 2018 - 5:59pm | Likes: 33 Like 
NBA DFS for DraftKings and FanDuel - Wednesday, November 14th

Welcome to Hump Day, where the NBA is celebrating with a huge 11 game slate tonight. It’s going to be one of the more complicated nights that we’ve seen this season, which makes it the perfect spot to chase those DFS tournament dollars. Below is a position by position breakdown, along with some value picks to help navigate both FanDuel and DraftKings GPPs tonight.  

Point Guard

With the injury to Caris Levert, expect significant ownership tonight on D’Angelo Russell, coming off a 31 point-6 assist game against Minnesota on Monday. Though the injury likely results in a usage bump for Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie’s increased role in the offense and $4900 and $5800 price tags on DraftKings and FanDuel respectively, might be the more attractive option. Both guards are firmly in play tonight, but note that you need to play Russell at a loaded shooting guard position on FanDuel, and point per dollar I think I prefer the savings on Dinwiddie here on both sites.  

Tonight’s game against New Orleans has the highest projected Vegas total on the slate at 236 points and still climbing. It should be an absolute track meet. On Monday night Tom Thibodeau played quite a bit of Derrick Rose and Jeff Teague alongside each other, with Rose at the two, and Teague at the one, a trend we should probably expect to continue. Jeff Teague comes into the day with a questionable tag after playing 35 minutes on Monday night, but if he’s active then he arguably makes a better play than backcourt mate Derrick Rose, as he comes in $500 cheaper than Rose on FanDuel and a whopping $1600 cheaper on DraftKings. Teague dropped more than 46 fantasy points on both sites the other night and we have to assume that if he’s playing than he will likely see the full complement of minutes. Sans Teague though, jam in as much of Rose as you can get on both sites, though he’s a better value on FanDuel. While we don’t know what the impact of Dario Saric and Robert Covington will be just yet, we do know that without Butler and Teague on the court this season Rose has a usage rate north of 35%. Those guys aren’t going to cut into it enough to make him a bad play.

The New Orleans backcourt is also a tricky proposition, as we could see Elfrid Payton return tonight for the Pelicans. Assuming he starts and isn’t on a minutes restriction, he makes for a fantastic value on DraftKings at $5200, but I think you can do better for $6900 on FanDuel. If we don’t see Elf then Jrue Holiday has to be in consideration, though he’s only shooting guard eligible on FanDuel, where his price is a little prohibitive at $9000. On DraftKings he’s got multi-position eligibility and can certainly crush his $8500 price tag with a plus matchup in a pace up spot, and that’s especially true if Nikola Mirotic sits again.      

Value is going to be key on tonight’s slate, and with the news that Emmanuel Mudiay is going to start at point guard for the Knicks, he becomes a solid punt play at $3700 on DraftKings and $4000 on FanDuel. While he’s not scoring dependent, he has the benefit of seeing the worst defender on Oklahoma City in Dennis Schroder. And when seeing upwards of 20+ minutes Mudiay has been a near lock for 20-25 fantasy point production. We have to assume that his move to the starting lineup pretty much solidifies him for 22+ minutes tonight.  

Shooting Guard

Devin Booker is $7600 on both sites, which feels insanely cheap (especially on FanDuel) for his talent level and role in the Suns offense. After back to back poor shooting performances his price tag has tumbled, and while this isn’t the ideal spot to take advantage of it in what projects to be one of the slower games on the slate, we saw firsthand against the Celtics last week that Booker is capable of overcoming both game script and matchup. A matchup with San Antonio often gives owners pause, but make no mistake, this is a defense living off reputation, as elite perimeter defender Danny Green is now in Toronto. With the entire Phoenix offense flowing through him, Booker can get his here, and then some.  

I don’t have any interest in a $8700 Bradley Beal on FanDuel, but at $7500 on DraftKings, he’s just too cheap. The play essentially comes down to whether or not you believe the Wizards are actually as bad as they’ve been so far this season. If so, perhaps they can’t run away from this awful Cleveland team playing short-handed on a back to back. And if that’s the case you’ll likely get 36+ minutes of Beal, which is should be fantastic. On the other hand, if Cleveland gets blown out early then Beal might not see 30 minutes. And while three quarters of Bradley Beal is certainly enough for him to hit value, it likely takes the sort of 45+ fantasy point production you want in tournaments off the table.

Small Forward

As is always the case on a slate this size, there’s no shortage of potential studs to roster. While Brow (we’ll get to him) is my favorite of the top priced options, I think there’s a lot of merit to considering a likely under-owned Lebron James tonight. He’s the best player in a game that figure to be both close and high scoring (second highest projected total on the slate), and he’s already posted good numbers against the Blazers in their first two meetings this season-50.5 and 47.75 DK points respectively. With nine players on FanDuel priced at $10k or above, he’s harder to get to there, but on DK his $10,300 price tag feels a tad too cheap.

Over the past three games T.J. Warren has taken over as the starter and then some, logging an average of 40 minutes over the past three games and scoring at least 21 real points in all three. Outside of Devin Booker and Warren, the Suns have little in the way on consistent scorers so Warren looks entrenched for the foreseeable future. Even more importantly, he’s starting to look like the type of nightly fantasy contributor we saw for stretches last season. His price is up a bit on this recent run, but he’s probably still too cheap at $5800 on DraftKings.

To be honest, I liked Kevin Knox a lot more before we found out he was starting tonight. After working his way slowly back from injury, Knox has logged 24 and 26 minutes in the last two games, both while coming off the bench. Even in that role it was easy to envision him starting to threaten 28-30 tonight, but now it seems inevitable. He’s fairly scoring dependent, and the matchup with the Thunder wings isn’t great, but he’s enough of a pure scorer to get to 18+ real points. Then with just a handful of peripherals you’re in business at $3900 on DraftKings.

This is purely a tournament play, but pay attention to the news on Nikola Mirotic and consider E’Twaun Moore if he’s out, especially if Elfrid Payton sits as well. With Mirotic off the floor Moore’s usage rate jumps from just over 17% in the Pelicans offense to just over 22%. He’s not sexy, and doesn’t offer much outside of scoring, but he’s relatively cheap and went for 30 real life points with Mirotic sitting out on Monday night. He’s $4900 on both sites, which makes him a particularly good value on FanDuel.

Power Forward

If you need me to tell you to play Anthony Davis in the highest projected total game on the slate, then you may want to reconsider playing NBA DFS. His price is sky high across all sites, but he’s also in the midst of a three game stretch in which he’s averaging 28 points, 16 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 2.7 blocks, and .7 steals, with just 3 turnovers. It’s a smash spot and he’s been absolutely on fire as of late. If Nikola Mirotic sits then it gets even better. The problem with tonight’s slate is figuring out which studs to sit, and with Davis’s ability to wreck a slate, he’s tough to ignore.

Power forwards have been destroying Philadelphia this season, which makes Aaron Gordon, who should thrive in this pace up game, an excellent option. The 76ers will have to integrate Jimmy Butler into their gameplan on the fly in Orlando tonight, and while Dario Saric wasn’t the defensive stalwart Robert Covington was, there are going to be some growing pains as Philly tries to gel midseason on the defensive end. Starting power forward Wilson Chandler is still on a minutes limit, and backup Mike Muscala is going to have a helluva time chasing Gordon around. Tonight is simply a spot in which he can exploit the things he does best, which should put him in line for plenty of peripheral stats.    

If you’re looking for power forward value, taking a look at Marcus Morris tonight could provide the answer. He’s been a consistently productive force off the bench for Boston, and gets a Bulls front court that hasn’t been able to keep anyone off the glass this season. Wendell Carter Jr. has come back down to earth a bit, and Jabari Parker has been absolute garbage since sliding into the starting lineup. Morris should be able to get the better of him down low, and could see some extra run with the Celtics coming off a tough west coast swing and back in Boston to open their homestand. He could easily put up 15 and 10 here at a sub $6000 price tag on both sites.

With Jarrett Allen a game-time call again tonight, Ed Davis could wind up being way too cheap on FanDuel, where comes in at just $3900. He’s basically a 1+ fantasy point per minute player, and has been for most of his career. If Allen misses he likely logs 20+ minutes again and can get to 25+ points, which is a solid number from a punt play that could let you squeeze in one more stud.

Center

On Friday night Karl-Anthony Towns dropped 39 and 19 at Sacramento, and the celebrated the trade of Jimmy Butler with 25 and 21 on Monday against the Nets. His price has come way up, but Towns is a guy that always feels underpriced until he hits $10k. Much like Anthony Davis on the other side, Towns is the now the unquestioned focal point of the T-Wolves offense and a wide open game like the one expected between New Orleans and Minnesota tonight is where he’s at his best. He’ll be uber-popular here, but also tough to fade, as he’s one of the handful of guys on the slate that can hang 70+ fantasy points on the board on any given night.

Speaking of guys that can hang 70+ fantasy points on the board, let’s talk about Hassan Whiteside, who nearly hung a triple-double with blocks on the Spurs last Wednesday night, and could get a match-up against a Jarrett Allen-less Nets team. But that could be a double edged sword, as Allen sitting might incline the Nets to try to run Whiteside off the floor by going small. To date, they’ve played at a slow pace, but if they run out Dinwiddie and Russell in the backcourt together we could see a repeat of the uptempo Brooklyn team from last season. Whiteside has massive upside against an undersized front court tonight, but he also comes with massive risk.

I don’t like much of anything about the Memphis-Milwaukee game, but if the Grizzlies can figure out how to keep this one close into the fourth (MIL -10 at the moment) then we have to assume Marc Gasol has a lot to do with it. As good as the Bucks are, they’ve been dreadful at defending the center position, and Gasol is exactly the kind of multi-dimensional big that could cause them problems. Moreover, with the other big names on this slate, I expect he goes woefully under-owned in what profiles as a better than average spot. He’s reasonably priced for the opportunity and no one will have him.   

If you’re looking to punt the center position, and that’s certainly a way to get contrarian tonight, then Tyson Chandler could provide some value. At $4200 on FanDuel and $3400 on DraftKings, Chandler has quietly been logging 20+ minutes for the Lakers, who had previously been playing JaVale McGee 30+ minutes per night. Better still, he’s gotten 20+ fantasy points in each of the past two games, and could certainly get there again tonight against the Blazers.

Good luck tonight!

The views expressed above are my personal takes on the games and strategies I’ve highlighted and I may sometimes play on the platforms and in the games on which I offer advice. With that in mind, please note that I also may employ different players, tactics, and strategies than what I have recommended here.

 

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